The Oakshire II Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$269,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 767 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 767 days

🏗️ New construction. The $269,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,537.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 889 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 116d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 767 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,586 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 767 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,537
• List price: $269,490
• Delta: -10.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
817 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+1%)	1mo	$275,990	$144	87
940 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-10%)	1mo	$255,991	$149	73
765 Camden Valley Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,941 (+2%)	2mo	$285,900	$147	72
921 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-10%)	2mo	$265,990	$155	72
1062 Garnet Star Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-1%)	1mo	$295,990	$158	70
1082 Garnet Star Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,990 (+5%)	2mo	$301,990	$152	66
432 Pecan Landing Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,877 (-1%)	2mo	$299,999	$160	62
602 Havenstone Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,104 (+11%)	2mo	$289,000	$137	62
1210 Sacred Light Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (-9%)	0mo	$297,990	$172	58
508 Forest Village Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$135	55
1228 Painted Bunting Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,180 (+15%)	1mo	$275,000	$126	51
1073 Garnet Star Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-14%)	1mo	$276,990	$170	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,074
• Equity at exit: $44,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,727
• Equity at exit: $25,899

Cash invested: $83,870 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 130 active · 59 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 889
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,493/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,620

Max offer price $265,879

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-129	+0% $-233	+5% $-336	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-324	+0% $-233	+5% $-141	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-156	base $-233	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,884
• Closing costs: $8,986
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	1947	$1,966	$1.01	18d	1	0.58mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	115d	1	0.60mi
707 Willow Harbor Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,231	$0.97	19d	1	0.70mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	139d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-31
   days on market $269,490 Active 767 DOM
2. 2026-08-29
   days on market $269,490 Active 765 DOM
3. 2026-08-28
   days on market $269,490 Active 764 DOM
4. 2026-08-27
   days on market $269,490 Active 763 DOM
5. 2026-08-25
   days on market $269,490 Active 761 DOM
6. 2026-08-24
   days on market $269,490 Active 760 DOM
7. 2026-08-23
   days on market $269,490 Active 759 DOM
8. 2026-08-22
   days on market $269,490 Active 758 DOM
9. 2026-08-21
   days on market $269,490 Active 757 DOM
10. 2026-08-20
    days on market $269,490 Active 756 DOM
11. 2026-08-19
    days on market $269,490 Active 755 DOM
12. 2026-08-18
    days on market $269,490 Active 754 DOM
13. 2026-08-17
    days on market $269,490 Active 753 DOM
14. 2026-08-16
    days on market $269,490 Active 752 DOM
15. 2026-08-15
    days on market $269,490 Active 751 DOM
16. 2026-08-14
    days on market $269,490 Active 750 DOM
17. 2026-08-13
    days on market $269,490 Active 749 DOM
18. 2026-08-12
    days on market $269,490 Active 748 DOM
19. 2026-08-11
    days on market $269,490 Active 747 DOM
20. 2026-08-10
    days on market $269,490 Active 746 DOM
21. 2026-08-09
    days on market $269,490 Active 745 DOM
22. 2026-08-08
    days on market $269,490 Active 744 DOM
23. 2026-08-06
    days on market $269,490 Active 742 DOM
24. 2026-08-05
    days on market $269,490 Active 741 DOM
25. 2026-08-04
    days on market $269,490 Active 740 DOM
26. 2026-08-03
    days on market $269,490 Active 739 DOM
27. 2026-07-31
    days on market $269,490 Active 736 DOM
28. 2026-07-30
    days on market $269,490 Active 734 DOM
29. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,490 Active 733 DOM
30. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,490 Active 731 DOM
31. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,490 Active 729 DOM
32. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,490 Active 728 DOM
33. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,490 Active 727 DOM
34. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,490 Active 726 DOM
35. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,490 Active 725 DOM
36. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,490 Active 723 DOM
37. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,490 Active 722 DOM
38. 2026-07-16
    days on market $269,490 Active 721 DOM
39. 2026-07-15
    days on market $269,490 Active 720 DOM
40. 2026-07-14
    days on market $269,490 Active 719 DOM
41. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,490 Active 718 DOM
42. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,490 Active 717 DOM
43. 2026-07-11
    days on market $269,490 Active 716 DOM
44. 2026-07-10
    days on market $269,490 Active 715 DOM
45. 2026-07-09
    days on market $269,490 Active 714 DOM
46. 2026-07-07
    days on market $269,490 Active 712 DOM
47. 2026-07-06
    days on market $269,490 Active 711 DOM
48. 2026-07-06
    days on market $269,490 Active 710 DOM
49. 2026-07-05
    days on market $269,490 Active 709 DOM
50. 2026-07-03
    days on market $269,490 Active 708 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,779
• − Property taxes: −$4,493
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − Depreciation: −$8,714
• Taxable loss: −$8,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $269,490 Zillow
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $267,490 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $262,490 Zillow
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $270,490 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $280,490 Zillow
• 2024-07-25 Listed $279,990 Zillow