3309 Denise Dr · Bradenton, FL 34222

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 253 Days on market

Built 1973 4,025 sqft lot Est $89k · at est. $211/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Terra Siesta. Recent updates include a new AC installed in 2023, new flooring throughout, modernized kitchen and bathroom, and an aluminum roof-over with a lifetime warranty. This property is truly move-in ready, ideal as a full-time residence or a seasonal retreat for snowbirds. Enjoy all the fantastic amenities that Terra Siesta Co-op offers! Residents have access to two heated pools, two clubhouses, and a wide range of activities including pickleball, shuffleboard, horseshoes, water aerobics, table tennis, billiards, arts and crafts, and so much more. There’s always something happening in this active

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Aluminum roof-over
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ALUMINUM ROOF-OVER
• HEATED POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year 2024 (annual tax shown separately); Directions: From US 301N, turn left on Terra Siesta Blvd., then left on Denise Drive
• Financial info: Monthly HOA approximately $211; total annual fees about $2,532; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with required monthly fee (about $211); Association amenities include pool; Association fee covers pool, management, private road, sewer, trash, water, and common area taxes; Association approval is required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; BB/HS Internet available; Sewer and water included in association fee
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof (roof over); Crawlspace foundation; Built as single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed rear porch; Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $89k implies a 394% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.02%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,704
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3107 Darnea Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	672 (0%)	0mo	$89,000	$132	91
7704 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.21mi	2/1.0	612 (-9%)	2mo	$81,000	$132	73
3109 Cynthia Pl	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (-11%)	1mo	$87,000	$145	70
3102 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.18mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	3mo	$80,000	$104	63
3401 Glenda Ln	0.25mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	10mo	$80,000	$104	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $29,394
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $82,395
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$211
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $711	+0% $686	+5% $661	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $538	-5% $612	+0% $686	+5% $760	+10% $833
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $708	base $686	+0.5pp $663	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	3d	67	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $211 · $2,532/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $89,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $89,000 Pending 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 241 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 234 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $89,000
17. 2026-03-30
    price $98,800
18. 2025-12-02
    price $99,800
19. 2025-10-09
    listed $111,000 Active
20. 2025-08-23
    historical
21. 2025-03-23
    listed $109,000 Active
22. 1991-12-27
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − HOA: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $7,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,771
• After-tax cash flow: $6,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+394.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $98,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $99,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $111,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-23 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $914 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.