2706 W Ashlan Ave #48 · Fresno, CA 93705

$125,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1973 $87/sqft · 31% above area Est $96k · 31% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this very spacious and well maintained two-bedroom, two-bath mobile home located in a beautiful 55+ community. This inviting home was painted inside and out just two years ago and features a four-year-old HVAC system, professionally tinted windows, and custom blinds throughout. Additional highlights include two storage sheds with electricity and a seven year old water heater. The terrace backyard showcases meticulous brickwork and a custom staircase with a gradual incline. Conveniently located near guest parking and the community car wash. The park offers resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, two swimming pools, walking trails, and a dog park. Reach out to your favorite Realtor for a showing today!

Key facts

• Terrace backyard
• Two storage sheds
• Custom blinds

Tags

• FOUR YEAR OLD HVAC SYSTEM
• PROFESSIONALLY TINTED WINDOWS
• CUSTOM BLINDS
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• SEVEN YEAR OLD WATER HEATER
• TERRACE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.97%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,058
• List price: $125,900
• Delta: 31.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2706 W Ashlan Ave #86	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$50,000	$35	97
2706 W Ashlan Ave #144	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$136,000	$94	96
2706 W Ashlan Ave #46	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$89,000	$62	95
2706 W Ashlan Ave #156	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$127,500	$89	95
2706 W Ashlan Ave #266	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$124,900	$87	94
2706 W Ashlan Ave #175	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,436 (-0%)	3mo	$94,900	$66	93
2706 W Ashlan Ave #11	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$98,000	$68	92
2706 W Ashlan Ave #158	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	6mo	$80,000	$54	89
2706 W Ashlan Ave #200	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$53,500	$37	85
2706 W Ashlan Ave #281	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$89,000	$66	84
2706 W Ashlan Ave #299	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,310 (-9%)	1mo	$165,000	$126	77
3138 W Dakota Ave #210	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$42,500	$32	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $15,282
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $71,046
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93705

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4184 N Briarwood Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,195	$1.35	43d	1	0.22mi
3274 W Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,535	$1.57	2d	5	0.44mi
3058 W San Gabriel Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,450	$1.91	43d	1	0.57mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 60-147 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	19d	1	0.61mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 60-158 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	23d	1	0.61mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Unit 84-118 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	43d	1	0.61mi
4144 N Valentine Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	16d	1	0.61mi
4264 N Bengston Ave Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	43d	1	0.66mi
1668 W Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,185	$1.35	23d	1	0.67mi
4597 N Emerson Ave Apt 103 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	23d	1	0.75mi
4942 N Holt Ave #103 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	0.78mi
4467 N Van Dyke Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,195	$1.70	3d	1	0.93mi
1493 W Fairmont Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,595	$1.52	23d	1	1.04mi
941 W Dakota Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	10d	2	1.26mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 8106 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1215	$1,925	$1.58	23d	1	1.27mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 15-202 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	915	$1,550	$1.69	16d	1	1.27mi
3515 W San Jose Ave Unit 9105 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1115	$1,725	$1.55	43d	1	1.27mi
3207 W Shields Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,468	$1.53	1d	3	1.28mi
5066-5098 N Marty Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,750	$1.82	19d	1	1.33mi
1696 W Shaw Ave Unit AVE-104 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	3d	1	1.33mi
3326 N West Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	21d	1	1.38mi
1212 W Andrews Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	16d	1	1.41mi
5355 N Valentine Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1318	$2,021	$1.53	16d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,900 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-01-10
    listed $130,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Welcome to this very spacious and well maintained two-bedroom, two-bath mobile home located in a beautiful 55+ community. This inviting home was painted inside and out just two years ago and features a four-year-old HVAC system, professionally tinted windows, and custom blinds throughout. Additional highlights include two storage sheds with electricity and a seven year old water heater. The terrace backyard showcases meticulous brickwork and a custom staircase with a gradual incline. Conveniently located near guest parking and the community car wash. The park offers resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, two swimming pools, walking trails, and a dog park. Reach out to your favorite Realtor for a showing today!

16. 2025-08-12
    price $124,999
17. 2025-04-03
    price $139,999
18. 2025-02-22
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable income: $4,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $4,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,888
• Household income: $57,003
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2217.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Two or more races 34% White 22% Black 6% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.23%
• Current HPI: 399.0061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Listed $130,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $124,999 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $139,999 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listed $149,900 FRESNOMLS