790 Blue Creek Ter · Millburg, MI 49022

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1956 0.50 ac lot Est $135k · 33% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

Key facts

• Great location
• Main floor laundry
• Ravine setting

Tags

• RAVINE SETTING
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Electric water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; Living area approximately 912
• Construction: Built in 1956; Aluminum and wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (11 x 12); Second bedroom (11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room (10 x 11); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Benton Harbor Area Schools (urban): math 4% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #732 of 760 in MI (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 89% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.89%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,976
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
790 Blue Creek Ter	0.00mi	2/1.0	912 (0%)	1mo	$79,900	$88	99
3230 Easy St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	915 (+0%)	23mo	$135,000	$148	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,359
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $21,816
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49022

• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,892/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

3. 2026-04-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

4. 2026-03-27
   listed $89,900 Active 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

5. 2026-03-27
   listed $89,900 Active 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

6. 2026-03-27
   listed $89,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Small 2 bedroom ranch style home on the very end of Blue Creek Terrace. Ravine setting, main floor laundry and large 2 car garage. No well pump, in need of some updating. Great location just out of town yet close to everything. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and therefore should be verified by purchaser (s) and or licensed inspector(s) Listing broker makes no warranties or claims as to property condition. Seller is exempt form disclosure. Homestead exemption subject to change prior to closing. Seller reserves the right to counter best and highest in multiple offer situations. AGENTS PLEASE FOLLOW OFFER INSTRUCTIONS IN AGENT REMARKS AREA. Thank you

7. 2022-11-15
   soldstatus $105,000
8. 2022-11-10
   soldstatus $105,000 Sold
9. 2022-11-10
   soldstatus $105,000 Sold
10. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
11. 2022-10-07
    listed Accepting Backup Offers
12. 2022-09-22
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
13. 2022-09-22
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted
14. 2022-09-12
    price $107,900
15. 2022-09-12
    price $107,900
16. 2022-09-01
    status Active
17. 2022-09-01
    status Active
18. 2022-06-10
    historical Active Contingent
19. 2022-06-10
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
20. 2022-06-03
    listed $109,900 Active
21. 2022-06-03
    listed $109,900 Active
22. 2022-06-03
    listed $107,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,892
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$407
• After-tax cash flow: $2,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Benton Harbor Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604830
• Math proficiency: 4% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $27,038
• Composite: 7.53/100
• National rank: #14787
• State rank: #732 of 760 in MI

Livability — Millburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,796

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 209.9723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-29 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-07 Listed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-22 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-22 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $107,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $107,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-09-01 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-01 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-06-10 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-06-10 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-06-03 Listed $107,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $109,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,892 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.