2388 Sparrow Loop #155 · Kelso, WA 98626

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1989 $52/sqft · 36% below area Est $117k · 36% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

First time on market - 1 owner special!!! 2bd, 2bth, 1440 sq ft of well kept & perfectly maintained living space. Spacious living room, skylights for natural lighting, large bedrooms, soaker tub in the primary, loads of storage & more. Enjoy the peaceful quiet living of this lovely 55+ park located just 4 mins east of I5.

Key facts

• Loads of storage
• Built 1989
• Listed 156 days

Tags

• SKYLIGHTS FOR NATURAL LIGHTING
• SOAKER TUB IN THE PRIMARY
• LOADS OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 3.4% in Kelso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#324 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Kelso School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.09%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,000
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -35.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2388 Sparrow Loop #155	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$64,900	$45	99
2430 Meadowlark Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$57,900	$40	86
2423 Nightingale Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$55,000	$38	86
2425 Kingfisher Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$45,000	$31	80
2415 Nightingale Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$70,000	$49	79
2392 Kingfisher	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	7mo	$125,000	$96	76
2376 Kingfisher Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$75,000	$60	72
2451 Kingfisher Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$69,999	$52	68
2368 Kingfisher Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,240 (-14%)	21mo	$54,000	$44	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $39,921
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $107,238
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98626

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $830	-5% $809	+0% $788	+5% $767	+10% $746
Rent	-10% $657	-5% $723	+0% $788	+5% $853	+10% $918
Rate	-1.0pp $826	-0.5pp $807	base $788	+0.5pp $769	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Cardinal Ln Unit None Kelso, WA	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.16mi
910 Elizabeth St Kelso, WA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,625	$1.51	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $74,900
3. 2026-01-31
   price $75,900
4. 2026-01-23
   status Active
5. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-02
   price $79,000
7. 2025-11-22
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $8,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $7,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso School District
• NCES district ID: 5300003
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,840
• Composite: 39.83/100
• National rank: #7963
• State rank: #191 of 291 in WA

Livability — Kelso

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #12232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelso, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• City population: 26,892
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,892
• Household income: $75,528
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.36%
• Current HPI: 262.8196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $74,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $75,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $79,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,115 · +435.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.