10810 N 91 Ave #96 · Peoria, AZ
Flood risk 5/10 · Moderate
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.27%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 113°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Schools +3.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.7/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -6.5
$39,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Great starter home. Beautifully done with a French look kitchen style. Large living/family room. Extended covered patio for your cookouts. Cement parking slab. All ages community offers a pool, dog park, fitness center and club house. Close to shopping, entertainment, and schools. A couple of blocks to the 101 Fwy and 60 Hwy for easy commute. Awesome area! * There is a rent with option to buy. Ask your agent.
Key facts
- Dog park
- Fitness center
- Cement parking slab
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
- Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
- Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Cheyenne Elementary School (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 598 students, 72% FRL); Sunrise Mountain High School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 2,018 students, 15% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 410 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.27% ✓
- Cap rate
- 29.04%
- Cash-on-cash
- 81.26%
- DSCR
- 4.62
- GRM
- 2.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $75,349
- List price
- $39,000
- Delta
- -24.35%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11411 N 91st Ave #28 | 0.36mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 812 (+4%) | 5mo | $27,750 | $34 | 67 |
| 10810 N 91st Ave #45 | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 896 (+15%) | 4mo | $80,000 | $89 | 64 |
| 11000 N 91st Ave #49 | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 896 (+15%) | 0mo | $64,900 | $72 | 62 |
| 11411 N 91st Ave #51 | 0.38mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 792 (+2%) | 18mo | $44,000 | $56 | 56 |
| 10951 N 91st Ave #127 | 0.25mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 850 (+9%) | 15mo | $115,000 | $135 | 52 |
| 10701 N 99th Ave #178 | 0.64mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 840 (+8%) | 2mo | $15,000 | $18 | 51 |
| 10951 N 91st Ave #43 | 0.23mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 866 (+11%) | 16mo | $105,000 | $121 | 49 |
| 10701 N 99th Ave #65 | 0.72mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 796 (+2%) | 7mo | $55,000 | $69 | 48 |
| 10951 N 91st Ave #224 | 0.44mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 840 (+8%) | 11mo | $40,000 | $48 | 48 |
| 10701 N 99 Ave #128 | 0.64mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 792 (+2%) | 19mo | $39,500 | $50 | 43 |
| 10701 N 99th Ave #90 | 0.64mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 796 (+2%) | 18mo | $45,500 | $57 | 43 |
| 10951 N 91st Ave #232 | 0.44mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 896 (+15%) | 15mo | $64,375 | $72 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 78.8%
- Equity multiple
- 4.46×
- Total profit
- $37,807
- Equity at exit
- $5,815
- IRR
- 81.7%
- Equity multiple
- 8.50×
- Total profit
- $81,954
- Equity at exit
- $3,372
Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 14 active · 4 under contract
- Months of supply
- 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $47,000 ($57/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 57 d
- This list price
- 36% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +69.6% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85345
- Home prices YoY
- -19.8%
- Rents YoY
- 0.6%
- Active inventory
- 410
- Price-to-rent
- 2.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,277 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$205
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$49 /mo · $585/yr
- Insurance
- −$16
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$268
- Net cashflow
- $739
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $766 | -5% $753 | +0% $739 | +5% $726 | +10% $712 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $639 | -5% $689 | +0% $739 | +5% $790 | +10% $840 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $759 | -0.5pp $749 | base $739 | +0.5pp $729 | +1.0pp $719 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $9,750
- Closing costs
- $1,170
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 26 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9248 W Mescal St Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 847 | $1,435 | $1.69 | 18d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 9248 W Mescal St Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 847 | $1,435 | $1.69 | 21d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 11411 N 91st Ave Unit 213 Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 858 | $1,399 | $1.63 | 73d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1074 | $1,595 | $1.49 | 73d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1074 | $1,595 | $1.49 | 52d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1074 | $1,695 | $1.58 | 48d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 10701 N 99th Ave Unit 230 Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 784 | $1,099 | $1.40 | 69d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 8757 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 985 | $1,539 | $1.56 | 9d | 15 | 0.65mi |
| 9911 N 95th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1072 | $1,500 | $1.40 | 2d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 8650 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 836 | $1,524 | $1.82 | 0d | 14 | 0.76mi |
| 10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1072 | $1,750 | $1.63 | 73d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 10860 N 85th Ave Unit 62 Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $1,250 | $1.60 | 42d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 8560 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 888 | $1,349 | $1.52 | 21d | 8 | 0.84mi |
| 10110 N 97th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1025 | $1,500 | $1.46 | 0d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 10860 N 85th Ave Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $1,225 | $1.57 | 93d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 10860 N 85th Ave Peoria, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 630 | $1,350 | $2.14 | 21d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 10860 N 85th Ave Unit 87 Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $1,149 | $1.47 | 54d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 10860 N 85th Ave Unit 16 Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $1,225 | $1.57 | 23d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 10822 N Balboa Dr Sun City, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 942 | $3,000 | $3.18 | 73d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 8940 W Olive Ave #70 Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1022 | $1,600 | $1.57 | 34d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 12751 N Plaza Del Rio Blvd Peoria, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1007 | $1,795 | $1.78 | 0d | 9 | 1.11mi |
| 8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 897 | $1,400 | $1.56 | 66d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 9680 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.5–2.0 | 945 | $1,799 | $1.90 | 2d | 8 | 1.22mi |
| 8280 W Madison St Peoria, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 800 | $1,400 | $1.75 | 93d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–3.0 | 1485 | $2,799 | $1.88 | 0d | 8 | 1.41mi |
| 8165 W Whitney Dr Peoria, AZ | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 911 | $2,224 | $2.44 | 0d | 206 | 1.46mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Land lease of $1,000 monthlyNo association fees includedCommunity poolOn-site fitness centerNear bus stop
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 open parking spaces
- Utilities
- City waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Manufactured/mobile homeFee simple ownership
- Construction
- Wood frame constructionPainted exteriorFoam roof
- Exterior features
- Shed(s)Dirt backyardSynthetic grass in frontPrivate maintained roadAsphalt road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- Refrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- Laminate flooring
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Eat-in kitchenRefrigerator
- Laundry & utility
- Washer/dryer hookup only
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $39,000 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $39,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $39,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $39,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $39,000 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $39,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $39,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $39,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $39,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $39,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $39,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $39,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $39,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $39,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $39,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $39,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $39,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $39,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $39,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $39,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $39,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $39,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $39,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $39,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $39,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $39,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $39,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $39,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $39,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $39,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $39,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $39,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $39,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $39,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $39,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $39,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $39,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $39,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $39,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $39,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $39,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-06-13pricedays on market $39,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $57,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-02-16$57,000 Active 421-char remark
-
2025-08-31historical
-
2025-07-29price $50,000
-
2025-05-21$52,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,326
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,185
- − Property taxes
- −$585
- − Insurance
- −$195
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,226
- − Management
- −$1,226
- − Depreciation
- −$1,135
- Taxable income
- $8,775
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,106
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,767/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates, making it a great starter home in a desirable location.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Rental Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Peoria Unified School District (4237)
- NCES district ID
- 0406250
- Math proficiency
- 36% ▼ -14.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 42% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $60,171
- Composite
- 34.62/100
- National rank
- #5152
- State rank
- #64 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Peoria
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #14
- US rank
- #3603
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Peoria, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
- City population
- 206,687
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 60,918
- Household income
- $67,380
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 16% of renters
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 29%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 13% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -80.77%
- Current HPI
- 328.1069
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.62%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
-17.0% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-04 Listed $39,000 ARMLS
- 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2026-02-16 Listed $57,000 ARMLS
- 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2025-07-29 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
- 2025-05-21 Listed $52,000 ARMLS
- 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2025-02-25 Listed $47,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…