126 Carl King Ave · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$235,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1960 6,316 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great home for a large family, with good location. 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home, with Garage. Living room plus a huge family room , with gas fireplace. It also has a separate dining room. Good sized laundry room with washer and dryer. Carpet, and Water Heater in 2018. . Hurricane shutters, There is a well washing boats or cars. . Small screened in porch on front and large screened porch on back. . Home has recently been painted inside and outside. Come take a tour today.

Key facts

• Huge family room
• New cabinets
• New appliances

Tags

• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• TOTALLY REDONE KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Residential single-family detached; New construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Screened porch/patio; Privacy fencing; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Wall/window unit(s); Ceiling fan(s); Heating: see remarks
• Interior features: Pantry; Window coverings

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Apalachicola Bay Charter School (math 56% / reading 48%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 359 students, 60% FRL, charter); Franklin County Learning Center (56 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Franklin average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,171 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,971
• Equity at exit: $35,188

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,080
• Equity at exit: $20,405

Cash invested: $66,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $235,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $150	+0% $84	+5% $17	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $5	+0% $84	+5% $162	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $144	base $84	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,000
• Closing costs: $7,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,999 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $235,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 57 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 56 DOM
20. 2026-04-11
    status Active
21. 2026-03-11
    historical
22. 2026-03-02
    listed $259,900 Active
23. 2021-07-22
    soldstatus $170,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    A great home for a large family, with good location. 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home, with Garage. Living room plus a huge family room , with gas fireplace. It also has a separate dining room. Good sized laundry room with washer and dryer. Carpet, and Water Heater in 2018. . Hurricane shutters, There is a well washing boats or cars. . Small screened in porch on front and large screened porch on back. . Home has recently been painted inside and outside. Come take a tour today.

24. 2021-01-16
    listed $189,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    A great home for a large family, with good location. 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home, with Garage. Living room plus a huge family room , with gas fireplace. It also has a separate dining room. Good sized laundry room with washer and dryer. Carpet, and Water Heater in 2018. . Hurricane shutters, There is a well washing boats or cars. . Small screened in porch on front and large screened porch on back. . Home has recently been painted inside and outside. Come take a tour today.

25. 2020-01-21
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,959 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,220
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$6,865
• Taxable loss: −$3,035
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$728
• After-tax cash flow: $1,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+107.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Relisted — RAFGC
• 2026-03-11 Delisted — RAFGC
• 2026-03-02 Listed $259,900 RAFGC
• 2021-07-22 Sold (MLS) $170,000 RAFGC
• 2021-01-16 Listed $189,000 RAFGC
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.