4839 Billy Direct Ln · Wesley Chapel, FL 33559

$198,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 817 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1979 5,240 sqft lot Est $230k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Location. Near Wesley Chapel. 3 bed 2 bath single-family home in Lutz offering a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value. Property features a newer A/C system and newer water heater. Kitchen and appliances are older and ready for updating. Roof is older. Ideal for cash buyers, investors, landlords or owner-occupants seeking a renovation opportunity. Convenient access to major roads, shopping, and dining. Cheapest 3/2 home in Lutz at time of listing. All offers net to seller. BUyers to sign seller investor addendum.

Key facts

• Great location
• Newer a/c system
• Newer water heater

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• NEWER A/C SYSTEM
• NEWER WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoning: R3; Total living area estimated at 1,302 square feet; Lot size about 0.12 acres; Unfurnished; No CDD; Listed by FLORIDA REAL ESTATE PARTNERS
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; Northeast facing; Fixer condition
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 1,302 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.12 acres (40 x 131)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $198k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,577
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4937 Steel Dust Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0	809 (-1%)	12mo	$227,000	$281	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,755
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,439
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33559

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,477/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,786

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $181	+0% $125	+5% $69	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $48	+0% $125	+5% $202	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $176	base $125	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4859 Billy Direct Ln Lutz, FL	2.0	1.0	809	$1,950	$2.41	25d	1	0.01mi
4843 Billy Direct Ln Lutz, FL	3.0	1.0	1121	$2,100	$1.87	25d	1	0.04mi
26675 Players Cir Lutz, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,665	$2.08	3d	15	0.15mi
5291 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,009	$1.88	3d	14	0.52mi
5561 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$1,883	$1.80	0d	11	0.70mi
27745 Chestnut Lake Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,174	$2.13	4d	45	0.76mi
4434 Cobalt Brook Blvd Lutz, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1248	$2,436	$1.95	0d	40	0.95mi
5101 Bruce B Downs Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,086	$1.95	0d	6	1.23mi
28355 Sparrows Edge Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$3,224	$3.61	0d	56	1.36mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $198,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    price $200,000
15. 2026-04-17
    price $201,000
16. 2026-04-17
    price $202,500
17. 2026-03-21
    price $204,000
18. 2026-03-13
    price $205,000
19. 2026-03-12
    price $207,500
20. 2026-02-28
    price $209,500
21. 2026-02-17
    price $210,000
22. 2026-02-10
    listed $215,000 Active
23. 2002-06-28
    soldstatus $55,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$3,477
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$1,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$413
• After-tax cash flow: $1,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,831
• Household income: $80,185
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.64%
• Current HPI: 307.7635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+257.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $201,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $202,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $204,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $207,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $209,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,477 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.