13 Halcon · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$105,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,402 sqft · Townhouse public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1976 $75/sqft · 41% below area Est $179k · 41% under $213/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW ROOF JULY 2024 NEW WATER HEATER IN 2025

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Upper and lower deck
• $213 HOA

Tags

• LAWN MAINTENANCE INCLUDED
• UPPER AND LOWER DECK
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $105k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,957
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -41.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Halcon Pl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+10%)	1mo	$155,248	$100	78
10 Abaron Pl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+5%)	8mo	$180,000	$122	71
1 Halcon Pl	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-8%)	10mo	$159,000	$123	70
25 Tomisa Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	0mo	$163,500	$114	67
49 Reddina Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	11mo	$163,350	$113	60
22 Reddina Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+5%)	10mo	$192,000	$130	58
9 San Vincente Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	9mo	$339,900	$212	55
12 Troza	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (-0%)	11mo	$185,000	$132	55
48 Lequita Pl	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,544 (+10%)	12mo	$195,000	$126	54
2 Tomisa Ln	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	3mo	$60,000	$48	50
32 Calanas Ln	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,580 (+13%)	10mo	$335,000	$212	47
5 Gailosa Ln	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	9mo	$155,000	$123	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,474
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $31,838
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$213
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Tomino Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1549	$1,350	$0.87	14d	1	0.91mi
143 La Vista Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1028	$1,450	$1.41	23d	1	0.91mi
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	23d	1	0.96mi
16 Dulzura Ln Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	14d	1	1.14mi
2 Dulzura Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,200	$1.07	44d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $213 · $2,556/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Price Change 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Price Change 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Price Change 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Price Change 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Price Change 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    status Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW ROOF JULY 2024 NEW WATER HEATER IN 2025

18. 2026-04-14
    status Back on Market 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW WATER HEATER 2025 NEW ROOF JULY OF 2024

19. 2026-04-06
    status Under Contract 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW ROOF JULY 2024 NEW WATER HEATER IN 2025

20. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW ROOF JULY 2024 NEW WATER HEATER IN 2025

21. 2026-03-28
    listed $115,000 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW ROOF JULY 2024 NEW WATER HEATER IN 2025

22. 2026-03-27
    listed $115,000 New Listing 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    It is priced to sell at $115,000. Lots of amenities and activities are available to you living in HSV! A great choice for you and the family or as a rental. Trash service and lawn maintenance are included with your monthly POA fee. Easy to see anytime just grab, call or text your favorite Realtor and go check this one out today! Over 1400 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a bonus room with peg boards on the walls making it a great shop or craft room. An upper and lower deck make it easy to experience the outdoors without leaving home. NEW WATER HEATER 2025 NEW ROOF JULY OF 2024

23. 2019-02-12
    soldstatus $65,000
24. 2019-02-12
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 2019-02-11
    soldstatus $65,000 Sold
26. 2019-01-09
    status Under Contract
27. 2018-10-25
    status Back on Market
28. 2018-09-25
    historical Take Backups
29. 2018-09-14
    listed $65,000 New Listing
30. 2018-08-08
    historical
31. 2018-03-29
    status Back on Market
32. 2018-03-26
    status Under Contract
33. 2018-03-21
    price $67,900
34. 2018-02-05
    listed $79,900 New Listing
35. 2006-11-21
    soldstatus $84,000
36. 1991-08-01
    soldstatus $43,000
37. 1989-06-01
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − HOA: −$2,556
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $3,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+173.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — HSBOR
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HSBOR
• 2026-03-28 Listed $115,000 HSBOR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $115,000 CARMLS
• 2019-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CARMLS
• 2019-01-09 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-10-25 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2018-09-25 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2018-09-14 Listed $65,000 CARMLS
• 2018-08-08 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2018-03-29 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2018-03-26 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-03-21 Price Changed $67,900 CARMLS
• 2018-02-05 Listed $79,900 CARMLS
• 2006-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.