4061 Holly Cove Dr · Chesapeake, VA 23321

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Townhouse public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath townhouse located in the Western Branch section of Chesapeake. Nearby shopping, restaurants and interstate. Property is being sold as part of a portfolio - 10628174 and 10628119.

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 76 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA or association fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking space
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Attached townhouse; 2 stories; Slab foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Brick siding; Wood fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southwestern Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 544 students, 91% FRL); Western Branch High (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 2,121 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 28% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $180k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,160
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3857 Schooner Trl	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$133	91
4157 Holly Cove Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,280 (0%)	10mo	$115,000	$90	85
4020 Holly Cove Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+2%)	9mo	$190,500	$147	84
4120 Sloop Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+9%)	0mo	$220,000	$157	79
3912 Holly Cove Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,360 (+6%)	3mo	$195,000	$143	78
4008 Sloop Trl	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-12%)	2mo	$190,000	$170	71
3809 Schooner Trl	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,425 (+11%)	2mo	$160,000	$112	71
3965 Holly Cove Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (+9%)	5mo	$215,000	$154	70
3958 Rex Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,257 (-2%)	2mo	$259,000	$206	70
4021 Holly Cove Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+12%)	6mo	$186,000	$129	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,780
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $51,902
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23321

• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4100 Sail Ct Unit 4105 Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.04mi
4100 Sail Ct Unit 4118 Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	7d	1	0.04mi
4100 Sail Ct Unit 4124 Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,595	$1.45	14d	1	0.04mi
1507 Hodges Ferry Rd Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1827	$1,650	$0.90	43d	1	1.08mi
840 Lancer Dr Unit 615 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	1002	$1,288	$1.29	23d	1	1.34mi
840 Lancer Dr Unit 694 Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1202	$1,480	$1.23	17d	1	1.34mi
1217 Lakeview Dr Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1425	$2,550	$1.79	7d	1	1.43mi
1203 Baskerville Ln Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1550	$2,300	$1.48	12d	1	1.46mi
1203 Baskerville Ln Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1550	$900	$0.58	23d	1	1.46mi
1017 Hodges Ferry Rd Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	880	$1,350	$1.53	43d	1	1.48mi
4207 Coffman Blvd Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,900	$2.02	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-04-03
    listed $179,900 Active
14. 2008-03-14
    soldstatus $105,000
15. 2005-11-09
    soldstatus $82,000
16. 2004-08-23
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$28
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 40,176
• Household income: $101,568
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 839.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 37% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -256.23%
• Current HPI: 295.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.59%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+204.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $179,900 REINMLS
• 2008-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,346 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.