253 SE 122nd Ave · Cross City, FL 32680

$174,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1970 1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land in Old Town! Located in a quiet neighborhood just off 55A, this home is the perfect place for you and your small family to plant roots. The home features a recently remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances as well as vinyl floors. There is a lovely front porch for sipping your morning coffee and a large side patio for grilling out in the evenings. There is also an outdoor workshop equipt with power and a large pole barn for keeping any boats, vehicles, or other toys out of the weather. Call today to set up a private tour of your future home.

Key facts

• 16 x 24 workshop
• Pole barn
• Front porch

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• 16 X 24 WORKSHOP
• POLE BARN
• YARD IS COMPLETELY FENCED
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-152/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Cross City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#412 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,451 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $93,970
• Equity at exit: $156,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $277,384
• Equity at exit: $338,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32680

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,405/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,501

Max offer price $171,762

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $37	+0% $-13	+5% $-62	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-71	+0% $-13	+5% $46	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $32	base $-13	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-16
   price $174,000
3. 2025-08-12
   status Active
4. 2025-08-12
   price $182,000
5. 2025-07-31
   status Pending
6. 2025-07-22
   price $174,900
7. 2025-06-07
   price $184,900
8. 2025-04-15
   listed $189,900 Active
9. 2022-08-09
   soldstatus $165,000
10. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus $165,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Lovely 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land in Old Town! Located in a quiet neighborhood just off 55A, this home is the perfect place for you and your small family to plant roots. The home features a recently remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances as well as vinyl floors. There is a lovely front porch for sipping your morning coffee and a large side patio for grilling out in the evenings. There is also an outdoor workshop equipt with power and a large pole barn for keeping any boats, vehicles, or other toys out of the weather. Call today to set up a private tour of your future home.

11. 2022-06-22
    listed $159,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Lovely 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home on over an acre of land in Old Town! Located in a quiet neighborhood just off 55A, this home is the perfect place for you and your small family to plant roots. The home features a recently remodeled kitchen with new stainless steel appliances as well as vinyl floors. There is a lovely front porch for sipping your morning coffee and a large side patio for grilling out in the evenings. There is also an outdoor workshop equipt with power and a large pole barn for keeping any boats, vehicles, or other toys out of the weather. Call today to set up a private tour of your future home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,405
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$3,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$749
• After-tax cash flow: $597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cross City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #7340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,445

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.22%
• Current HPI: 424.0037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+9.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $174,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-08-12 Relisted — DGLMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $182,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-07-31 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $174,900 DGLMLS
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $184,900 DGLMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $189,900 DGLMLS
• 2022-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) $165,000 DGLMLS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $159,000 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+30.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,405 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.