40858 W Portis Dr · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$302,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2018 4,975 sqft lot $192/sqft · 13% below area Est $346k · 13% under $132/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained, clean, and warm--this well cared for home features newly replaced stainless steel appliances and a spacious open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large primary suite offers a private retreat, while natural light fills the home, enhanced by sunshades on select windows for added comfort and efficiency. recently updated HOA approved exterior paint. Enjoy a generously sized backyard ideal for relaxing or hosting. Located in Desert Passage Subdivision, residents enjoy greenbelts, parks, walking paths, playgrounds, and a community pool perfect for cooling off during Arizona's sunny days. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and schools-this home

Key facts

• 4,975 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot information sourced from assessor
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $132 covering grounds maintenance; Community pool; Playground; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Desert-front landscaping; Natural desert backyard; Automatic timer irrigation in front and back; Irrigation in front yard; Block fencing; Tile roof; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Solar window screens
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Maricopa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Saddleback Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 795 students, 56% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL); Desert Sunrise High School (615 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 860 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,630 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,596
• List price: $302,000
• Delta: -12.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18485 N Foxtail Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+3%)	4mo	$300,990	$186	81
18514 N Jameson Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+0%)	0mo	$332,900	$211	80
18450 N Foxtail Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-7%)	6mo	$304,990	$208	75
41254 W Granada Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-8%)	3mo	$269,000	$187	72
40214 W Lococo St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+1%)	3mo	$299,000	$189	72
40625 W Patricia Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-12%)	3mo	$309,990	$224	71
40555 W Patricia Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-12%)	3mo	$302,990	$219	69
40535 W Patricia Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-12%)	6mo	$294,990	$213	65
40136 W Catherine Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+9%)	3mo	$330,000	$194	63
19081 N Jameson Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+7%)	2mo	$345,000	$206	60
39976 W Tamara Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,757 (+12%)	4mo	$309,000	$176	51
41370 W Somerset Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,804 (+15%)	1mo	$365,000	$202	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,913
• Equity at exit: $74,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-63,011
• Equity at exit: $79,661

Cash invested: $84,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 860
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,584
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,870/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $226,356

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-257	-5% $-343	+0% $-428	+5% $-514	+10% $-599
Rent	-10% $-585	-5% $-507	+0% $-428	+5% $-350	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-351	base $-428	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,500
• Closing costs: $9,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40584 W Helen Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,300	$1.19	4d	1	0.21mi
41177 W Lucera Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1838	$1,875	$1.02	6d	1	0.23mi
40404 W Molly Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1803	$1,695	$0.94	44d	1	0.30mi
41342 W Capistrano Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2201	$1,800	$0.82	6d	1	0.30mi
40250 W Green Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,395	$1.42	44d	1	0.40mi
17645 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,150	$2.18	2d	17	0.47mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,699	$0.90	6d	1	0.50mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,729	$0.92	17d	1	0.50mi
39695 W Lococo St Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1133	$1,540	$1.36	2d	29	0.59mi
39696 W Lococo St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,604	$1.42	44d	1	0.63mi
17485 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,750	$1.86	2d	19	0.72mi
18184 N Calacera St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	17d	1	0.75mi
19550 N Gunsmoke Rd Maricopa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1056	$1,604	$1.52	25d	10	0.80mi
42584 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$1,723	$1.51	2d	58	0.90mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	12d	1	0.91mi
40481 W Jenna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,820	$1.00	6d	1	0.98mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	4d	1	1.01mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	44d	1	1.01mi
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	44d	1	1.02mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	25d	1	1.03mi
42246 W Balsa Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,679	$1.06	44d	1	1.06mi
16720 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,750	$1.91	2d	33	1.07mi
41363 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,739	$1.09	44d	1	1.07mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	44d	1	1.09mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	25d	1	1.09mi
42725 W Martie Lynn Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,015	$1.34	25d	1	1.16mi
41094 W Somers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,850	$1.15	3d	1	1.17mi
41932 W Manderas Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1553	$1,850	$1.19	25d	1	1.19mi
41057 W Ganley Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	1908	$1,965	$1.03	6d	1	1.20mi
39941 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	25d	1	1.23mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,681	$1.08	6d	1	1.36mi
40174 W Brandt Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2115	$1,849	$0.87	5d	1	1.41mi
41885 W Celebration Ln Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1911	$2,700	$1.41	44d	1	1.47mi
43205 W Jeremy St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,850	$1.09	6d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $302,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $302,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $302,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $302,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $302,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $302,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $302,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $302,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $302,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $302,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $302,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $302,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $302,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $305,000 Active 788-char remark
17. 2025-05-07
    historical $1,600
18. 2025-04-10
    price $1,600
19. 2025-03-21
    listed $1,700
20. 2024-04-25
    historical $1,700
21. 2024-02-02
    listed $1,700
22. 2005-06-07
    soldstatus $1,044,454

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,870 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,917
• − Property taxes: −$1,870
• − Insurance: −$1,510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$8,785
• Taxable loss: −$10,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-71.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $302,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Rental Removed $1,600 ARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $1,600 ARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,700 ARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Rental Removed $1,700 ARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listed for Rent $1,700 ARMLS
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,044,454 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,870 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.