200 Hawthorne Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$209,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1987 0.36 ac lot $118/sqft · 14% below area Est $245k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a spacious kitchen and a living area centered around a classic fireplace. The interior offers modern finishes, while the exterior includes a convenient 2-car garage. The property has a large backyard for outdoor activities and entertaining. Located within the Madison Central School District, this residence combines comfort with a great location.

Key facts

• Classic fireplace
• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CLASSIC FIREPLACE
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.62%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,705
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -14.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Glenwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-1%)	2mo	$279,000	$158	77
163 Azalea Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-1%)	6mo	$279,900	$159	76
119 Azalea Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-3%)	8mo	$273,500	$159	73
520 Hunters Creek Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,737 (-3%)	3mo	$249,000	$143	70
143 Azalea Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-11%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	65
113 Cedar Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+2%)	5mo	$264,999	$146	61
1035 N Azalea Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-0%)	9mo	$249,900	$141	61
305 Golden Pond Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,988 (+11%)	3mo	$350,000	$176	52
112 Armonde Ct	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,563 (-12%)	1mo	$259,000	$166	49
409 Hawthorne Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-13%)	4mo	$274,999	$177	45
1022 N Azalea Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	5mo	$245,000	$159	42
519 Morning Glory Cv	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,974 (+11%)	7mo	$309,900	$157	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,289
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $43,936
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,939

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $629	+0% $569	+5% $510	+10% $450
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $464	+0% $569	+5% $674	+10% $779
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $623	base $569	+0.5pp $515	+1.0pp $459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 Mcdale Ln Madison, MS	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,500	$1.23	44d	1	1.22mi
345 Avonlea Ln Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $209,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $214,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $214,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a spacious kitchen and a living area centered around a classic fireplace. The interior offers modern finishes, while the exterior includes a convenient 2-car garage. The property has a large backyard for outdoor activities and entertaining. Located within the Madison Central School District, this residence combines comfort with a great location.

17. 2026-02-18
    listed $224,900 Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a spacious kitchen and a living area centered around a classic fireplace. The interior offers modern finishes, while the exterior includes a convenient 2-car garage. The property has a large backyard for outdoor activities and entertaining. Located within the Madison Central School District, this residence combines comfort with a great location.

18. 2011-01-13
    soldstatus
19. 2011-01-11
    soldstatus 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom 2 bath, 1725sf home in North Place Subdivision of Madison. This home has been updated with hardwood floors, built in bookshelves, fresh paint, remodeled kitchen, new appliances, & great patio. Large privacy fenced beautifully landscaped yard has room for all outdoor activities. Large storage building could be used as a small office. Call today for your appointment to see this home.

20. 2010-11-01
    listed $156,000 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom 2 bath, 1725sf home in North Place Subdivision of Madison. This home has been updated with hardwood floors, built in bookshelves, fresh paint, remodeled kitchen, new appliances, & great patio. Large privacy fenced beautifully landscaped yard has room for all outdoor activities. Large storage building could be used as a small office. Call today for your appointment to see this home.

21. 2005-03-16
    soldstatus
22. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus
23. 2004-11-08
    listed $148,500
24. 2002-11-18
    soldstatus
25. 2002-11-15
    soldstatus
26. 2002-06-07
    listed $128,500
27. 1990-10-03
    soldstatus
28. 1987-06-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,124 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,124 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
• − Management: −$2,553
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $3,771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $5,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $214,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-18 Listed $224,900 MLSU
• 2011-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-11-01 Listed $156,000 MLSU
• 2005-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2004-11-08 Listed $148,500 MLSU
• 2002-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-11-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2002-06-07 Listed $128,500 MLSU
• 1990-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,124 · -43.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.