4913 Bethel Creek Dr · Vero Beach, FL 32963

$485,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · Other · 34 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy living steps away from the beach in this 2 Bedroom / 2.5 Bath Townhome. Walk 1/2 a block to Village Beach Market or stroll down the street to Van Busch Park. This home includes a bedroom balcony, a walk in closet, an updated master bathroom, a stone patio with a wall of plants. The pool is right outside the back sliding glass doors. The kitchen has 1 year old appliances including an induction heat range. Feel secure with storm shudders and a roof that is warrantied against leaks.

Key facts

• Pool access
• Beach access
• Walk in closet

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• BEDROOM BALCONY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• UPDATED MASTER BATHROOM
• STONE PATIO
• POOL ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $485k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $485k).
• Recommended offer: $470k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Vero Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#116 in FL, #1,784 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 498 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $470,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-11,595
• Equity at exit: $72,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $164,782
• Equity at exit: $41,934

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32963

• Rents YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 498
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$606 /mo · $7,275/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,075
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,327

Max offer price $485,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4890 Bethel Creek Dr #5 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1244	$2,200	$1.77	21d	1	0.07mi
4836 Bethel Creek Dr Unit 4836 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1650	$3,000	$1.82	13d	1	0.08mi
4834 Bethel Creek Dr Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,900	$1.93	21d	1	0.08mi
926 Tropic Dr Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	13d	1	0.08mi
907 Tropic Dr Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$10,000	$5.46	21d	1	0.10mi
705 Bahia Mar Rd Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$16,000	$7.23	13d	1	0.11mi
4800 Bethel Creek Dr Unit 5S Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	2215	$5,500	$2.48	13d	1	0.12mi
5000 Highway A1A #320 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1980	$5,000	$2.53	21d	1	0.17mi
4800 Highway A1A #207 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$7,000	$3.78	21d	1	0.18mi
4800 Highway A1A #506 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$4,500	$2.43	21d	1	0.18mi
4800 Highway A1A #116 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1822	$3,000	$1.65	21d	1	0.18mi
902 Tides Rd Vero Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1810	$8,500	$4.70	13d	1	0.19mi
4601 Highway A1A #202 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$3,250	$2.26	21d	1	0.25mi
4601 Highway A1A #103 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	21d	1	0.25mi
4600 Highway A1A #409 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1725	$7,500	$4.35	21d	1	0.31mi
4600 Highway A1A #507 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	21d	1	0.31mi
4617 Pebble Bay S Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2240	$8,500	$3.79	21d	1	0.31mi
4450 Highway A1A #303 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$3,500	$3.24	21d	1	0.35mi
4450 Highway A1A #404 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$3,499	$3.24	13d	1	0.35mi
5100 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 58G INDN RIV SHRS, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$6,000	$5.13	21d	1	0.39mi
4150 Highway A1A #111 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	21d	1	0.52mi
5101 Highway A1A #109 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$5,500	$2.98	21d	1	0.57mi
4141 Ocean Dr Vero Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	13d	4	0.58mi
5151 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 512 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1339	$4,600	$3.44	21d	1	0.65mi
5151 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 305 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1339	$2,300	$1.72	21d	1	0.65mi
4019 Silver Palm Dr #8 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1460	$3,000	$2.05	21d	1	0.67mi
4009 Silver Palm Dr #3 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1430	$5,100	$3.57	21d	1	0.69mi
4026 Silver Palm Dr Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	13d	1	0.69mi
4049 Ocean Dr Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$3,750	$3.00	21d	2	0.71mi
3816 Mockingbird Dr Vero Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1600	$13,000	$8.12	21d	1	0.74mi
3939 Ocean Dr Unit B-407 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$7,000	$4.12	21d	1	0.76mi
3939 Ocean Dr Ph 8 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$7,500	$6.94	21d	1	0.76mi
5300 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 314 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	21d	1	0.77mi
5300 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 408 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$9,000	$6.92	21d	1	0.77mi
5300 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 305 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$6,000	$4.62	21d	1	0.77mi
5300 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 214 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$5,500	$4.23	21d	1	0.77mi
5300 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy #301 Indian River Shores, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	21d	1	0.78mi
3939 Ocean Dr Unit 302B Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,500	$5.00	21d	1	0.78mi
3939 Ocean Dr Unit 201A Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$4,000	$3.54	21d	1	0.78mi
3939 Ocean Dr Unit 401B Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,700	$2.39	21d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $485,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $485,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $485,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $485,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $485,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $485,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $485,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $485,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $485,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $485,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$7,275
• − Insurance: −$3,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,914
• − Management: −$4,914
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $7,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom townhome is in good condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor improvements that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home look more inviting
• Both minor repairs to driveway — cracks in the driveway can be repaired to improve curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home look more inviting ↑
• Both minor repairs to driveway — cracks in the driveway can be repaired to improve curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #1784

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vero Beach, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• City population: 98,707
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,008
• Household income: $149,923
• Rent vs Own: 4.9% rent · 95.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 119.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.47%
• Current HPI: 312.0326
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.04%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $485,000 FSBO.com