9628 Bryant Landing Rd · Stockton, AL 36579

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1965 0.68 ac lot $208/sqft · 79% above area Est $265k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile Home & Land 4 Bedroom/2 Bathroom located in the country city of Stockton, AL. This great deal won't last long. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Appointments are required. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.68 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#173 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,220 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,000
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -15.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $23,224
• Equity at exit: $81,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $86,525
• Equity at exit: $111,760

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36579

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $808/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-02-21
    listed $225,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Mobile Home & Land 4 Bedroom/2 Bathroom located in the country city of Stockton, AL. This great deal won't last long. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Appointments are required. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$10/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$808
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $3,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #14915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,448

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Current HPI: 103.3956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $225,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $808 · +31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.