435 Maryland · Marlin, TX 76661

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1952 0.31 ac lot $124/sqft · 59% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully home that blends modern upgrades with timeless charm. Featuring new exterior paint, new window world windows and a recently installed roof, this property offers peace of mind and standout curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Step inside and discover a warm and inviting layout with abundant natural light pouring throughout the home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is the perfect investment or starter home. For additional energy efficiency the home was spray foam insulated. Outside you will enjoy all the room the lot and a half property offers. Located on a dead end road you can enjoy the peacefulness this location offers.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($642/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,073 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,674
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 58.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 W Anders St W #1	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (-7%)	4mo	$51,500	$55	65
701 Curtis St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,032 (+2%)	14mo	$169,000	$164	65
213 Capps St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,004 (-0%)	11mo	$79,000	$79	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $26,388
• Equity at exit: $64,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $79,900
• Equity at exit: $106,711

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,681/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,073

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $89	+0% $53	+5% $18	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $8	+0% $53	+5% $99	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $85	base $53	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-04-09
    status Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully home that blends modern upgrades with timeless charm. Featuring new exterior paint, new window world windows and a recently installed roof, this property offers peace of mind and standout curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Step inside and discover a warm and inviting layout with abundant natural light pouring throughout the home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is the perfect investment or starter home. For additional energy efficiency the home was spray foam insulated. Outside you will enjoy all the room the lot and a half property offers. Located on a dead end road you can enjoy the peacefulness this location offers.

11. 2026-04-02
    status Pending 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully home that blends modern upgrades with timeless charm. Featuring new exterior paint, new window world windows and a recently installed roof, this property offers peace of mind and standout curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Step inside and discover a warm and inviting layout with abundant natural light pouring throughout the home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is the perfect investment or starter home. For additional energy efficiency the home was spray foam insulated. Outside you will enjoy all the room the lot and a half property offers. Located on a dead end road you can enjoy the peacefulness this location offers.

12. 2026-03-25
    listed $125,000 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully home that blends modern upgrades with timeless charm. Featuring new exterior paint, new window world windows and a recently installed roof, this property offers peace of mind and standout curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Step inside and discover a warm and inviting layout with abundant natural light pouring throughout the home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is the perfect investment or starter home. For additional energy efficiency the home was spray foam insulated. Outside you will enjoy all the room the lot and a half property offers. Located on a dead end road you can enjoy the peacefulness this location offers.

13. 2017-08-03
    historical
14. 2017-02-20
    historical
15. 2017-02-16
    listed $36,900
16. 2015-02-11
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,681
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$347
• After-tax cash flow: $989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+213.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2017-08-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-02-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-02-16 Listed $36,900 NTREIS
• 2015-02-11 Listed $39,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,681 · +18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.