103 Seven Oaks Rd Rd · Caroga Lake, NY 12032

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 1931 10,454 sqft lot Est $232k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 103 Seven Oaks Road! Nestled on a private corner lot, this updated home offers comfort in a peaceful setting. Enjoy a new metal roof, new wood stove, and classic fireplace for cozy living. The kitchen features newer appliances, updated electrical, and lighting throughout. Additional upgrades include a new pressure water pump and enhanced exterior charm. Deeded Lake Rights, Move-in ready with all the essentials-- Steps away from the Caroga Lake Marina! Home being sold as-is.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Updated electrical
• Classic fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER LOT
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WOOD STOVE
• CLASSIC FIREPLACE
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway; Space for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Raised foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s); Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor; Bedroom on second floor; Second-floor office (can be used as bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane fuel
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.4% in Caroga Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Wheelerville Union Free School District (rural): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #707 of 755 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,205 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,525
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 S Shore Rd	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,304 (-1%)	15mo	$270,000	$207	79
114 Outlet Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,180 (-11%)	4mo	$160,000	$136	69
718 S Shore Rd E Caroga	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	11mo	$333,000	$238	63
758 S Shore Rd E Caroga Lk	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	9mo	$218,000	$175	60
129 3rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-9%)	10mo	$199,000	$166	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $72,134
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $219,946
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12032

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $128,266

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-98	+0% $-150	+5% $-201	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-194	+0% $-150	+5% $-105	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-111	base $-150	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $-727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wheelerville Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3631200
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,872
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #11381
• State rank: #707 of 755 in NY

Livability — Caroga Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #16797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caroga Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 710

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.26%
• Current HPI: 496.3613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $149,900 Global MLS