13 Pheasant Rd · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$365,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 726 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1940 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Warm, inviting, and oozing with charm, this 1940s cottage is the perfect getaway, boasting beautiful views of Copake Lake. Leading to the front door is a beautiful handmade archway with mature climbing hydrangeas that flower throughout the spring and summer. Some features include; a sunny enclosed porch entrance leading into a cozy living room with a wood stove, a bright & sunny dining room overlooking the lake, kitchen with a brand-new stove and breakfast nook, and a newly renovated full bathroom with a soaking tub, washer/dryer. Plus, a new roof, installed in 2025 and a remodeled garage that now serves as a guest house or art studio, complete with vaulted ceilings. The outdoor space

Key facts

• Handmade archway
• Private dock
• Remodeled garage

Tags

• HANDMADE ARCHWAY
• FOUR-SEASON ENCLOSED PORCH
• NEWLY RENOVATED FULL BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• REMODELED GARAGE
• PRIVATE DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Additional structures: second residence and workshop
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, golf, lake, playground, and restaurant

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Cabin / House; Single-story (one level); Residential single family residence; Entry level: One
• Construction: Frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as a single-story cabin/house
• Exterior features: Garden; Dock; Private yard; Beach access and lakefront on Copake Lake; Private-maintained road; Few trees; Views; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $365k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $102k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $365k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $365,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.08%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $280,525
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $761,618
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$951
• Net cashflow: $1,284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,491	-5% $1,388	+0% $1,284	+5% $1,181	+10% $1,078
Rent	-10% $927	-5% $1,106	+0% $1,284	+5% $1,463	+10% $1,642
Rate	-1.0pp $1,468	-0.5pp $1,377	base $1,284	+0.5pp $1,190	+1.0pp $1,094

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $365,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $365,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $365,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,436 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,733/yr (+$144/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,345
• − Management: −$4,345
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable income: $10,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,408
• After-tax cash flow: $13,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copake Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $365,000 HVCRMLS
• 2009-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,703 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.