16027 Lakestone Dr · Houston, TX 77377

$260,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,267 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1989 5,793 sqft lot $115/sqft · 13% below area Est $298k · 13% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location, location! This as-is handyman special offers great potential with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, conveniently located with easy access to SH 249, SH 290, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly sought-after Tomball ISD and featuring a low tax rate, this property is a fantastic opportunity. Home is being sold as is. The home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and a cozy breakfast nook that opens to the main living area. All bedrooms, along with a dedicated home office, are located upstairs. The expansive primary suite offers a sitting area, generous closet space, and a gas log fireplace, creating a comfortable private retreat. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage with built-in shelving for extra storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,793 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $111k; list at $260k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,738 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,869
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -12.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16027 Lakestone Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,267 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$115	99
16119 Lakestone Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,431 (+7%)	8mo	$332,000	$137	74
12426 Wealdstone Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,380 (+5%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	73
16239 Jordyn Lake Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,196 (-3%)	9mo	$360,000	$164	72
16218 Jordyn Lake Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,118 (-7%)	6mo	$365,000	$172	71
16107 Lakestone Dr	0.03mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,458 (+8%)	8mo	$349,999	$142	69
15726 Gettysburg Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,515 (+11%)	7mo	$350,000	$139	53
16822 Park Island Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,535 (+12%)	9mo	$429,500	$169	51
15815 Laurel Cv	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,478 (+9%)	4mo	$410,000	$165	47
12815 Chriswood Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,572 (+14%)	4mo	$389,000	$151	47
11907 Lakewood Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-12%)	2mo	$379,000	$190	45
13014 Belgrave Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,507 (+11%)	8mo	$389,999	$156	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,748
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-108,467
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$566 /mo · $6,794/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,643

Max offer price $206,738

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-154	-5% $-228	+0% $-302	+5% $-375	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-480	-5% $-391	+0% $-302	+5% $-212	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-235	base $-302	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16044 Sweetwater Fields Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	3.0	2069	$2,095	$1.01	44d	1	0.10mi
12635 Ivyforest Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2687	$2,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.55mi
12311 Oak Park Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$2,300	$0.98	21d	1	0.85mi
17326 Granberry Gate Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	2232	$2,400	$1.08	22d	1	0.88mi
13407 Spring Cypress Rd Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,745	$1.40	2d	15	0.90mi
17518 Elverson Oaks Dr Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2311	$3,500	$1.51	44d	1	1.06mi
14715 Spring Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1793	$2,100	$1.17	44d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Location, location, location! This as-is handyman special offers great potential with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, conveniently located with easy access to SH 249, SH 290, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly sought-after Tomball ISD and featuring a low tax rate, this property is a fantastic opportunity. Home is being sold as is. The home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and a cozy breakfast nook that opens to the main living area. All bedrooms, along with a dedicated home office, are located upstairs. The expansive primary suite offers a sitting area, generous closet space, and a gas log fireplace, creating a comfortable private retreat. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage with built-in shelving for extra storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Location, location, location! This as-is handyman special offers great potential with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, conveniently located with easy access to SH 249, SH 290, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly sought-after Tomball ISD and featuring a low tax rate, this property is a fantastic opportunity. Home is being sold as is. The home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and a cozy breakfast nook that opens to the main living area. All bedrooms, along with a dedicated home office, are located upstairs. The expansive primary suite offers a sitting area, generous closet space, and a gas log fireplace, creating a comfortable private retreat. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage with built-in shelving for extra storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-17
   status Active 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Location, location, location! This as-is handyman special offers great potential with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, conveniently located with easy access to SH 249, SH 290, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly sought-after Tomball ISD and featuring a low tax rate, this property is a fantastic opportunity. Home is being sold as is. The home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and a cozy breakfast nook that opens to the main living area. All bedrooms, along with a dedicated home office, are located upstairs. The expansive primary suite offers a sitting area, generous closet space, and a gas log fireplace, creating a comfortable private retreat. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage with built-in shelving for extra storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-04-16
   historical 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Location, location, location! This as-is handyman special offers great potential with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, conveniently located with easy access to SH 249, SH 290, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly sought-after Tomball ISD and featuring a low tax rate, this property is a fantastic opportunity. Home is being sold as is. The home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and a cozy breakfast nook that opens to the main living area. All bedrooms, along with a dedicated home office, are located upstairs. The expansive primary suite offers a sitting area, generous closet space, and a gas log fireplace, creating a comfortable private retreat. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage with built-in shelving for extra storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities—schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-04-16
   historical $260,000 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Location, location, location! This as-is handyman special offers great potential with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, conveniently located with easy access to SH 249, SH 290, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly sought-after Tomball ISD and featuring a low tax rate, this property is a fantastic opportunity. Home is being sold as is. The home features high ceilings, two spacious living areas, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and a cozy breakfast nook that opens to the main living area. All bedrooms, along with a dedicated home office, are located upstairs. The expansive primary suite offers a sitting area, generous closet space, and a gas log fireplace, creating a comfortable private retreat. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage with built-in shelving for extra storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities—schedule your showing today!

6. 1997-08-13
   soldstatus $111,200
7. 1996-06-01
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,794 · $566/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,794 · $566/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$6,794
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$8,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+136.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $260,000 HARMLS
• 1997-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $111,200 Public Records
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,794 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.