412 Tall Cedar Way · Wylie, TX 75407

$209,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 3,572 sqft lot $139/sqft · 6% below area Est $223k · 6% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch , Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

Key facts

• 3,572 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Arbor Trails South; Located in Collin County, United States
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA management provided by Neighborhood Managment; HOA fee $250 semi-annually (management fees included)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; One covered garage space; Garage dimensions approximately 11' wide by 20' long
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; New construction completed in 2025; Smart home features present
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Less than 0.5 acre lot; Concrete, curbs and sidewalks; Underground utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Primary bedroom located on level 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (three total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Other interior features; Six total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Two levels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $205,759 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,399
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -6.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
216 Arbor Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,510 (0%)	0mo	$209,990	$139	93
204 Redwood Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-1%)	1mo	$237,990	$160	83
202 Arbor Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+9%)	0mo	$211,990	$129	76
118 Tall Cedar Way	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+9%)	0mo	$226,990	$138	74
123 Tall Cedar Way	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+9%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	74
120 Redwood Rd	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,720 (+14%)	0mo	$255,990	$149	66
6314 Sandpiper Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,535 (+2%)	1mo	$207,999	$136	64
6508 Glade St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-7%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	59
6414 Willet Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-7%)	1mo	$252,999	$180	57
6412 Longspur Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-7%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	56
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-7%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	55
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-10%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,574
• Equity at exit: $31,310

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-39,716
• Equity at exit: $18,156

Cash invested: $58,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $209,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $205	+0% $132	+5% $60	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $51	+0% $132	+5% $214	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $186	base $132	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,498
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
422 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1648	$1,795	$1.09	45d	1	0.01mi
321 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	45d	1	0.08mi
7016 Vining Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$2,000	$1.21	45d	1	0.09mi
7020 Vining DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,850	$1.34	26d	1	0.10mi
7018 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,095	$0.98	26d	1	0.14mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	9d	1	0.14mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	12d	1	0.14mi
7012 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,878	$1.04	22d	1	0.15mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	23d	1	0.20mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	18d	1	0.21mi
125 Arbor Dr Unit NA Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,097	$1.02	26d	1	0.23mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	45d	1	0.23mi
120 Redwood Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	3d	1	0.24mi
619 Fisher Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	45d	1	0.25mi
151 Sesame Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1299	$1,634	$1.26	26d	1	0.25mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	22d	1	0.25mi
316 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$1,799	$1.09	26d	1	0.28mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	4d	1	0.28mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.28mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,520	$1.17	0d	1	0.28mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	26d	1	0.29mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	45d	1	0.29mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	9d	1	0.29mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	0d	1	0.29mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	22d	1	0.30mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	12d	1	0.33mi
119 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,999	$1.54	14d	1	0.34mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	0.35mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.36mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	45d	1	0.37mi
101 County Road 1010 Unit 1010 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,295	$1.23	45d	1	0.37mi
6739 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.38mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	0d	1	0.39mi
656 Waymaker Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2015	$2,175	$1.08	0d	1	0.42mi
656 Waymaker Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2015	$2,175	$1.08	13d	1	0.42mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	45d	1	0.42mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	45d	1	0.42mi
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	26d	1	0.43mi
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	5d	1	0.44mi
6505 Glade St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-16
   price $219,990 1306-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   price $224,990 1306-char remark
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $224,990 Active 304-char remark
4. 2026-05-05
   status Active 1306-char remark
5. 2026-05-05
   price $219,990 1306-char remark
6. 2026-01-23
   historical 1306-char remark
7. 2026-01-22
   historical
8. 2026-01-03
   price $227,990 1306-char remark
9. 2025-12-19
   listed $227,990 Active
10. 2025-11-20
    listed $232,990 Active 1306-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$1,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $2,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $209,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $204,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $219,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $224,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $227,990 NTREIS