19725 E Squaw Valley Dr · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$242,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1997 0.34 ac lot Est $245k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1997 3bed 2 bath W/2 car port,totally remodeled new carpet, paint & textured,new tile counter tops,first time buyer this is it.Vaulted ceiling,ceiling fan,split FL. PL. large storage unit,desert landscaping,on .34 acre lot

Key facts

• Newer stove
• Newer dryer
• Newer washer

Tags

• THIRD OF AN ACRE
• BRAND NEW CARPETING
• NEWER STOVE
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• NEWER WASHER
• NEWER DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features include natural desert terrain; Lot size noted from assessor
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 4 open parking spaces; 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (on site and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views; Dirt road access
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame with steel frame elements; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Storage; Natural desert front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Heating
• Interior features: Full bath in the master bedroom; Laminate counters; Storage space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $242k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,894 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,456
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20310 E Chrysocolla Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,081 (+2%)	16mo	$235,000	$217	57
19275 E Saguaro Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,134 (+7%)	6mo	$263,000	$232	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $137,705
• Equity at exit: $218,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $400,541
• Equity at exit: $470,153

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $242,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $163	+0% $95	+5% $26	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $18	+0% $95	+5% $171	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $156	base $95	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $242,000 Active
3. 2003-12-15
   soldstatus $83,000
4. 2003-11-25
   soldstatus $83,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   1997 3bed 2 bath W/2 car port,totally remodeled new carpet, paint & textured,new tile counter tops,first time buyer this is it.Vaulted ceiling,ceiling fan,split FL. PL. large storage unit,desert landscaping,on .34 acre lot

5. 2003-08-04
   listed $86,500 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   1997 3bed 2 bath W/2 car port,totally remodeled new carpet, paint & textured,new tile counter tops,first time buyer this is it.Vaulted ceiling,ceiling fan,split FL. PL. large storage unit,desert landscaping,on .34 acre lot

6. 2003-07-17
   soldstatus $90,000
7. 2003-07-16
   soldstatus $45,000 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   BUY TWO AND SAVE $25,000. SELLER MOTIVATED. This 3b/2b Split floor plan with Wheelchair ramp from 1 car carport and storage shed on 1/3 Ac sells for $65,000. But add MLS #1923642 that adjoins this property and sells for $70,000 and GET BOTH FOR ONLY $110,000. Great first home or rental properties.

8. 2003-03-17
   listed $60,000 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   BUY TWO AND SAVE $25,000. SELLER MOTIVATED. This 3b/2b Split floor plan with Wheelchair ramp from 1 car carport and storage shed on 1/3 Ac sells for $65,000. But add MLS #1923642 that adjoins this property and sells for $70,000 and GET BOTH FOR ONLY $110,000. Great first home or rental properties.

9. 2001-10-25
   soldstatus $75,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $712 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$885/yr (+$74/mo · 124.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$3,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$738
• After-tax cash flow: $1,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+218.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $242,000 ARMLS
• 2003-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-25 Sold (MLS) $83,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-04 Listed $86,500 ARMLS
• 2003-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-16 Sold (MLS) $45,000 ARMLS
• 2003-03-17 Listed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2001-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $712 · +27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.