6311 Murphy · Victor, NY 14564

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1st OPEN HOUSE-SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23RD 12-2 PM Charming circa 2002 Skyline Birchfield vinyl clad manufactured ranch home with soft contemporary accents. . Home offers master bedroom suite with full Bath and soaking tub, 2 spacious bedrooms and full Bath. 1 year old gas furnace six-year-old hot water heater. Cathedral ceilings vinyl clad thermal pane Windows that tilt in for cleaning. Fully applianced kitchen with center island and appliances, 8 by 10 storage shed and backs to wooded rear yard. Delayed showings begin 9/21 at noon/delayed presentation 9/26 @ 6pm (please take note that this is not real estate but personal property-mortgage prequals are not acceptable. SEE LIST OF MANUFACTURED HOME LENDING INSTITUTIONS IN THE SUPPLIMENTALS) Must be for manufactured home) Lot Rent and Taxes:$630 lot rent + Monthly taxes 119.19=748.18

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Storage shed
• New roof

Tags

• GYPSUM MILLS COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW ROOF
• DECK OVERLOOKING WOODED YARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is rectangular with agricultural designation (100 x 50)
• Financial info: Land lease applies
• HOA & community: Association amenities include golf course and pool; Community/association pool

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Double wide mobile home; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation; Built as existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric and gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 2.6% in Victor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in NY, #1,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #222 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.26%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $67,339
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $164,262
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14564

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $1,285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6141 Cedar Creek Way Farmington, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1272	$2,375	$1.87	2d	17	0.31mi
6316 Bentley Dr Victor, NY	2.0	1.5	1500	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $14,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,576
• After-tax cash flow: $11,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629640
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $73,046
• Composite: 52.43/100
• National rank: #1575
• State rank: #222 of 590 in NY

Livability — Victor

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #1991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 16,364
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,364
• Household income: $115,625
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.90%
• Current HPI: 279.9821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-12-22 Sold (MLS) $77,500 UNYREIS
• 2023-09-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-09-17 Listed $77,900 UNYREIS