Dalton Plan · St. John Fisher College, NY 14625

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 858 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 857 days

🏗️ New construction. The $129,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $87,904.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 858 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 858 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.18%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,904
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 47.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Skyway Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,456 (0%)	8mo	$134,000	$92	89
2 Penview Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	9mo	$155,000	$110	83
1 Beatrice Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-5%)	13mo	$132,000	$95	68
34 Ewald Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-5%)	11mo	$130,000	$94	67
2 Wayside Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,600 (+10%)	15mo	$140,000	$88	66
36 Sebastian Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-5%)	10mo	$130,000	$94	63
23 Ewald Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-5%)	20mo	$136,000	$98	60
27 Elderberry Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-11%)	24mo	$90,000	$69	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $22,588
• Equity at exit: $13,107

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $67,160
• Equity at exit: $7,600

Cash invested: $24,613 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14625

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,319/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $87,904

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $639	-5% $608	+0% $578	+5% $548	+10% $517
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $519	+0% $578	+5% $637	+10% $696
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $600	base $578	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,976
• Closing costs: $2,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	1.35mi
218 1/2 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 858 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 855 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 854 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 853 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 852 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 850 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 847 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 846 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 845 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 844 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 840 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 839 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 838 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 837 DOM
15. 2024-02-14
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,319
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,557
• Taxable income: $5,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $5,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including painting, landscaping, and structural assessment. Immediate action is needed to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Peeling paint on the exterior suggests significant wear and tear.
• Major Structural assessment — The listing photo shows potential structural issues that need inspection.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown grass and lack of landscaping suggest a need for maintenance and aesthetic improvement.
• Major Fencing — The listing photo suggests a lack of perimeter security, which may need to be addressed for safety and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and market value.
• Both Landscaping and fencing — A well-maintained exterior with landscaping and fencing can enhance both resale and rental value.
• Resale Structural assessment and repairs — Addressing structural issues can improve the home's safety and marketability.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Peeling paint on the exterior suggests significant wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Structural assessment · The listing photo shows potential structural issues that need inspection.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and lack of landscaping suggest a need for maintenance and aesthetic improvement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · The listing photo suggests a lack of perimeter security, which may need to be addressed for safety and property value.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing — A well-maintained exterior with landscaping and fencing can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Structural assessment and repairs — Addressing structural issues can improve the home's safety and marketability. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. John Fisher College

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,667

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.69%
• Current HPI: 275.9721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-02-14 Listed $129,900 Zillow