Is SUTHERLAND Plan in Texas City, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.1% cap rate and $-670/mo modeled cash flow at a $289,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for SUTHERLAND Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,297/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.9

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Rent growth +3.5/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +1.4/10.0
DSCR +0.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$289,990

SUTHERLAND Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily · 451 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Sutherland! Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Sutherland offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen-featuring a center island and corner pantry-overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area. A lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath. Completing the home, a delightful covered patio provides a great place to relax in the fresh outdoor air.

Key facts

Single-story layout
Inviting kitchen
Spacious great room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-670 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (9.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (20.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $230k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 451 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,676 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 451 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.64% ✗
Cap rate: 4.06%
Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
DSCR: 0.64
GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $359,549
List price: $289,990
Delta: -19.35%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13802 Ballast Green Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+9%)	0mo	$340,460	$208	72
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+7%)	2mo	$305,990	$189	64
3205 Aqua Wave Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	12mo	$297,720	$176	56
13114 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	10mo	$290,000	$172	55
3121 Banyan Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+9%)	9mo	$323,900	$197	55
3417 Moraine Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	10mo	$299,990	$187	55
3126 Blue Flora Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,682 (+12%)	8mo	$285,000	$169	54
13101 Sapphire Lake Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	11mo	$286,000	$169	54
14008 Starboard Reach Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+9%)	0mo	$331,900	$201	52
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+8%)	2mo	$284,900	$174	51
3218 Cornflower Coast Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	11mo	$285,000	$169	51
3506 Moraine Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+7%)	11mo	$284,990	$176	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.3%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-98,705
Equity at exit: $53,610

10-year hold

IRR: -26.0%
Equity multiple: -0.31×
Total profit: $-131,513
Equity at exit: $31,087

Cash invested: $100,674 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 81 active · 18 under contract
Months of supply: 16.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $308,490 ($181/sqft)
Median days on market: 99 d
This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +32.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

Home prices YoY: -22.7%
Rents YoY: 4.0%
Active inventory: 783
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,297 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,886
Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,393/yr
Insurance: −$150
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
Net cashflow: $-670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,145

Max offer price $262,552

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-422	-5% $-546	+0% $-670	+5% $-795	+10% $-919
Rent	-10% $-852	-5% $-761	+0% $-670	+5% $-580	+10% $-489
Rate	-1.0pp $-489	-0.5pp $-579	base $-670	+0.5pp $-763	+1.0pp $-858

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $89,887
Closing costs: $10,786
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	71d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	93d	1	0.95mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	42d	1	0.98mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.04mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1825	$2,500	$1.37	0d	5	1.05mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	1.05mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,179	$1.18	0d	1	1.06mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	1.10mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,430	$2.26	0d	22	1.11mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	27d	1	1.15mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	54d	1	1.20mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	1.21mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	1.26mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	10d	1	1.29mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	60d	1	1.36mi
3210 Gulf Fwy Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,780	$2.04	0d	13	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $289,990 Active 451 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $289,990 Active 449 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $289,990 Active 448 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $289,990 Active 447 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $289,990 Active 446 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $289,990 Active 443 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $289,990 Active 442 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $289,990 Active 441 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $289,990 Active 440 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $289,990 Active 438 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $289,990 Active 436 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $289,990 Active 435 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $289,990 Active 434 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $289,990 Active 433 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $289,990 Active 432 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $289,990 Active 430 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $289,990 Active 429 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $289,990 Active 428 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $289,990 Active 427 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $289,990 Active 426 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $289,990 Active 425 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $289,990 Active 424 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $289,990 Active 423 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $289,990 Active 422 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $289,990 Active 421 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $289,990 Active 419 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $289,990 Active 418 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $289,990 Active 417 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $289,990 Active 416 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $289,990 Active 415 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $289,990 Active 414 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $289,990 Active 413 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $289,990 Active 412 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $289,990 Active 411 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $289,990 Active 410 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $289,990 Active 409 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $289,990 Active 408 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $289,990 Active 406 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $289,990 Active 404 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $289,990 Active 403 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $289,990 Active 400 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $289,990 Active 399 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $289,990 Active 398 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $289,990 Active 397 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $289,990 Active 395 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $289,990 Active 391 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $289,990 Active 390 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $289,990 Active 389 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $289,990 Active 386 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $289,990 Active 385 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,561
− Mortgage interest: −$20,140
− Property taxes: −$5,393
− Insurance: −$1,798
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
− Management: −$2,205
− Depreciation: −$10,460
Taxable loss: −$14,640

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,514
After-tax cash flow: $-4,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Dickinson ISD
NCES district ID: 4817070
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $61,318
Composite: 35.16/100
National rank: #5005
State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

Score: 62/100
State rank: #907
US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Texas City, TX
County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
City population: 49,936
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 23,083
Household income: $74,694
Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 390,640 people
By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
Current HPI: 236.0239
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2025-05-14 Listed $289,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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