SUTHERLAND Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily · 498 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Sutherland! Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Sutherland offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen-featuring a center island and corner pantry-overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area. A lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath. Completing the home, a delightful covered patio provides a great place to relax in the fresh outdoor air.

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Inviting kitchen
• Spacious great room

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• INVITING KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT AREA
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,165.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-724 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 889 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 498 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,603 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 498 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.63%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,165
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -19.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13802 Ballast Green Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+9%)	2mo	$340,460	$208	71
14013 Baikal Manor Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+9%)	1mo	$299,990	$183	64
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+7%)	4mo	$305,990	$189	63
13114 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	12mo	$290,000	$172	54
3121 Banyan Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+9%)	11mo	$323,900	$197	54
3417 Moraine Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	11mo	$299,990	$187	54
3126 Blue Flora Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,682 (+12%)	10mo	$285,000	$169	52
13101 Sapphire Lake Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	13mo	$286,000	$169	52
14008 Starboard Reach Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+9%)	2mo	$331,900	$201	51
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+8%)	4mo	$284,900	$174	50
3218 Cornflower Coast Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+12%)	13mo	$285,000	$169	50
3506 Moraine Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+7%)	13mo	$284,990	$176	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-102,102
• Equity at exit: $53,553

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-139,125
• Equity at exit: $31,054

Cash invested: $100,566 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 86 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $309,990 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 889
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,387/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,142

Max offer price $254,467

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-475	-5% $-599	+0% $-724	+5% $-848	+10% $-972
Rent	-10% $-899	-5% $-811	+0% $-724	+5% $-636	+10% $-548
Rate	-1.0pp $-543	-0.5pp $-632	base $-724	+0.5pp $-817	+1.0pp $-911

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,791
• Closing costs: $10,775
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.55mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	4d	1	0.71mi
14205 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,145	$1.54	0d	1	0.81mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	117d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	139d	1	0.95mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	89d	1	0.98mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.04mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,473	$2.30	0d	20	1.05mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	59d	1	1.05mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,159	$1.17	5d	1	1.06mi
333 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,209	$1.20	45d	1	1.07mi
628 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	45d	1	1.08mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	54d	1	1.10mi
12318 Wavecrest Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	33d	1	1.12mi
301 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,229	$1.04	24d	1	1.12mi
520 Red Dusk Paint Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,249	$1.05	35d	1	1.14mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	74d	1	1.15mi
801 Painted Bison Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,969	$1.39	41d	1	1.17mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1774	$1,889	$1.06	0d	1	1.19mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	33d	1	1.19mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	101d	1	1.20mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	76d	1	1.21mi
336 Comanche Plains Rd La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,789	$1.25	5d	1	1.22mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	63d	1	1.26mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	57d	1	1.29mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	106d	1	1.36mi
3210 Gulf Fwy Texas City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1141	$1,990	$1.74	0d	9	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $289,990 Active 498 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $289,990 Active 497 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $289,990 Active 496 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 495 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $289,990 Active 494 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $289,990 Active 493 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 492 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 491 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 490 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 488 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 487 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $289,990 Active 486 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 485 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 479 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 478 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 476 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 474 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 472 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 471 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 470 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,990 Active 468 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 467 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 466 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 465 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 464 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 463 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $289,990 Active 462 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 461 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 460 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 459 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 458 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 457 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 456 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $289,990 Active 455 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 454 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 453 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 452 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 451 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 449 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 448 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 447 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 446 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 443 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 442 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 441 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 440 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 438 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 436 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 435 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 434 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,119
• − Property taxes: −$5,387
• − Insurance: −$1,796
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − Depreciation: −$10,448
• Taxable loss: −$15,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-14 Listed $289,990 Zillow