1169 Carnation Dr · Crowley, TX 76036

$321,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,085 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 $154/sqft · 23% below area Est $416k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Austin Old World: Exquisite 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Luxurious L-Shaped Kitchen, Charming Pocket Office, Bonus Loft Area, and more! Introducing the pinnacle of townhouse living embodied in the exquisite Austin Modern floor plan. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a generous 2069 square feet of living space, this property stands ready to become your new sanctuary. Enter through the welcoming entry room, adaptable to feature a convenient drop zone for your everyday needs. The open-concept living, kitchen, and dining areas are bathed in natural light, perfectly suited for both vibrant entertaining and serene relaxation. The dining space is adorned

Key facts

• Lshaped kitchen
• Spacious pantry
• Pocket office

Tags

• LSHAPED KITCHEN
• POCKET OFFICE
• BONUS LOFT AREA
• WINDOW SEATING
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $319,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — Austin - Old World plan; Living area of 2,085

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#103 in TX, #3,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bess Race El (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 665 students, 77% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1036 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,769 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,932
• List price: $321,990
• Delta: -22.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1216 Carnation Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	2,088 (+0%)	3mo	$412,903	$198	94
1013 Gilbreath Ave	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,088 (+0%)	5mo	$429,990	$206	91
921 Almond Blossom Cir	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,038 (-2%)	2mo	$369,493	$181	88
1112 Carnation Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-9%)	3mo	$345,145	$182	80
1105 Red Admiral Ln	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,281 (+9%)	1mo	$469,972	$206	78
1001 Gilbreath Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,276 (+9%)	4mo	$459,093	$202	78
917 Almond Blossom Cir	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-9%)	4mo	$349,000	$184	76
1104 Bolden Ave	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,273 (+9%)	2mo	$375,000	$165	76
1013 Karis Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,273 (+9%)	3mo	$425,000	$187	75
1112 Rosemary Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,310 (+11%)	4mo	$434,689	$188	63
1048 Almond Blossom Cir	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,396 (+15%)	5mo	$399,093	$167	62
1000 Tulip Pl	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,349 (+13%)	6mo	$410,000	$175	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-79,412
• Equity at exit: $48,010

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-108,701
• Equity at exit: $27,840

Cash invested: $90,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1036
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,830/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,817

Max offer price $263,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-291	+0% $-402	+5% $-513	+10% $-625
Rent	-10% $-584	-5% $-493	+0% $-402	+5% $-311	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-320	base $-402	+0.5pp $-486	+1.0pp $-570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,498
• Closing costs: $9,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1013 Verde Valley Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.5	2225	$2,400	$1.08	26d	1	0.84mi
1032 Verde Valley Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.5	2145	$2,400	$1.12	20d	1	0.90mi
4004 Arklow St Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,200	$1.32	7d	1	0.93mi
4004 Arklow St Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,200	$1.32	26d	1	0.93mi
4013 Drifters Bend Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.96mi
4052 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,895	$1.29	23d	1	0.98mi
1312 Hunters Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	3.0	2155	$2,700	$1.25	12d	1	1.02mi
552 Kerry St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,295	$1.40	3d	1	1.03mi
705 Loftin St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,200	$1.45	45d	1	1.06mi
209 E Eller Ave Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,200	$1.11	14d	1	1.09mi
521 Mesquite Ave Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	1.13mi
4224 Old Timber Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$2,250	$1.08	45d	1	1.16mi
9125 Nevis Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$2,159	$1.44	0d	1	1.18mi
708 Cheryl St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	20d	1	1.19mi
9512 Carson Ranch Rd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,995	$1.68	23d	1	1.19mi
305 Wilson St Crowley, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	26d	1	1.22mi
720 Watson Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,095	$1.18	45d	1	1.24mi
4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	14d	1	1.25mi
4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,100	$1.43	26d	1	1.25mi
4213 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,050	$1.32	4d	1	1.25mi
3408 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	45d	1	1.26mi
3416 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$1,895	$0.93	45d	1	1.27mi
404 Canoe Way Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,195	$1.20	21d	1	1.27mi
9165 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,095	$1.23	0d	1	1.29mi
4216 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,129	$1.30	0d	1	1.29mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,149	$1.26	45d	1	1.29mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,089	$1.23	26d	1	1.29mi
744 Walls Blvd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,300	$1.28	45d	1	1.30mi
752 Rutherford Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,209	$1.19	45d	1	1.33mi
9213 Saint Martin Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2302	$2,229	$0.97	7d	1	1.33mi
432 Canoe Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,945	$1.22	0d	1	1.36mi
520 Horn St Crowley, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,290	$1.09	26d	1	1.40mi
3832 German Pointer Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2532	$3,299	$1.30	7d	1	1.42mi
205 Kennedy Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,935	$1.31	14d	1	1.44mi
237 Kennedy Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,920	$1.30	0d	1	1.45mi
601 Porter Ave Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,195	$1.40	45d	1	1.46mi
200 Kennedy Ct Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,860	$1.26	45d	1	1.46mi
3400 Quiet Valley Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,100	$1.10	45d	1	1.47mi
204 Kennedy Ct Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,015	$1.36	4d	1	1.47mi
9100 Saint Barts Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,969	$1.21	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $321,990 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $321,990 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $321,990 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $321,990 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $321,990 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $321,990 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $321,990 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $321,990 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $321,990 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $321,990 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $321,990 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $321,990 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $319,990 1166-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $317,990 Active 1166-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,036
• − Property taxes: −$4,830
• − Insurance: −$1,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − Depreciation: −$9,367
• Taxable loss: −$10,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,540
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crowley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #3462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crowley, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 36,044
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B