422 Madison St · Centralia, WA 98531

$260,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1925 6,098 sqft lot Est $353k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your tool belt and build some sweat equity with this home. Amazing opportunity with this 4 bed/ 1 bath home that sits within walking distance to an elementary school and all that downtown Centralia has to offer. The house is also in close proximity to Fiddler's Coffee, Winco, and the hospital. This is truly opportunity knocking!!! House is being sold As-is. Buyer to do their own due diligence.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 4 days

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WINCO
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HOSPITAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($355/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Lincoln Elementary (418 students, 85% FRL); Centralia Middle School (549 students, 80% FRL); Centralia High School (986 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $260k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,964 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 Madison St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,424 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$193	99
506 E Locust St	0.70mi	4/1.0	1,473 (+3%)	3mo	$319,000	$217	59
1007 Centralia College Blvd	0.60mi	4/1.0	1,440 (+1%)	14mo	$341,000	$237	58
414 S Rock St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-10%)	2mo	$371,000	$290	58
827 S Tower Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,262 (-11%)	13mo	$335,000	$265	53
322 S Diamond St	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,482 (+4%)	1mo	$370,000	$250	52
714 S Gold St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (-12%)	9mo	$285,000	$228	50
317 E Main St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,434 (+1%)	14mo	$355,000	$248	49
614 Yew St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,264 (-11%)	14mo	$285,000	$225	48
118 S Washington Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+6%)	14mo	$368,500	$243	44
303 Courtland St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,505 (+6%)	14mo	$385,000	$256	44
319 Willow Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+14%)	8mo	$445,000	$273	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,271
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-32,745
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,741/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $103	+0% $30	+5% $-44	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-57	+0% $30	+5% $116	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $96	base $30	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 S Washington Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,300	$1.82	45d	1	0.16mi
507 S Rock St Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	45d	1	0.23mi
914 B St Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,375	$1.48	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $260,000 Active
3. 2006-12-19
   soldstatus $129,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,741
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $1,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+100.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $260,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $129,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,741 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.