16801 Head Ave · Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1964 Est $207k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom home in Hazel Crest. Seller will not turn on utilities. As Is Sale! Property sold as is. Vacant, no appointment required. The seller prefers cash or conventional offers. Bidding Required! Bidding starts 3/10/15 - 3/17/2015

Key facts

• Built 1964
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: Appraiser; Lot is less than 0.25 acre (approx. 6,963 dimensions); Parcel number recorded
• Financial info: Special service area: No
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Side driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family ranch-style home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978 (61–70 years old)
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (14 x 18)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level (14 x 14) with carpet; Bedroom on the main level (12 x 14) with carpet; Bedroom on the main level (8 x 12) with carpet
• Flooring: Hardwood and carpet (bedrooms and main living areas carpeted in rooms listed)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Hardwood flooring throughout main areas; Some photos virtually staged
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jesse C White Learning Academy (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 427 students, 0% FRL); Thornwood High School (math 8% / reading 9%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 1,996 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $180k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,495
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16777 Trapet Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,644 (+7%)	9mo	$240,000	$146	78
17065 Crane Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0	1,500 (-2%)	0mo	$203,000	$135	76
16742 Crane Ave	0.11mi	4/1.0	1,683 (+10%)	6mo	$201,000	$119	70
16802 Anthony Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,682 (+9%)	9mo	$226,600	$135	70
16907 Orchard Ridge Ave	0.23mi	4/1.5	1,444 (-6%)	9mo	$181,900	$126	70
1722 168th St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$131	62
17026 Bulger Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (-9%)	1mo	$171,390	$123	61
16454 Paulina St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	2mo	$249,900	$167	60
2611 171st St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,587 (+3%)	0mo	$120,000	$76	56
16460 Wood St	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,600 (+4%)	8mo	$227,500	$142	56
16427 Wolcott Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	7mo	$174,900	$109	51
16929 Wood St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (+10%)	7mo	$236,000	$139	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,841
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,501
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60429

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,572/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,878

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $320	+0% $269	+5% $218	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $182	+0% $269	+5% $357	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $315	base $269	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.10mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	0d	1	0.22mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	0d	1	0.36mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	0d	1	0.38mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,300	$1.96	0d	1	0.97mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,500	$2.13	18d	1	0.97mi
2223 Hawthorne Rd Homewood, IL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,300	$1.48	26d	1	1.08mi
17306 Holmes Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,195	$1.43	6d	1	1.17mi
2722 Larkspur Ln Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1441	$2,650	$1.84	14d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,572
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $3,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hazel Crest

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #4242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazel Crest, IL
• City population: 14,602
• Population (ZIP): 14,602

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 282.3552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+97.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2020-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-11 Sold (MLS) $27,469 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-04 Price Changed $28,400 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-29 Price Changed $33,400 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-30 Price Changed $38,400 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-25 Price Changed $43,400 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-26 Listed $45,580 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,572 · -15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.