3127 Courthouse Rd · Palmyra, VA 22963

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,283 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1950 3.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This farmhouse, originally built in 1950, just became available for the first time in decades! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house sits at the front of over 3 ½ acres, which also has an excellent, clear space that’s far enough away from the house, for whatever you imagination wants to build. House is ready for open potential…bring your contractor! Property is being sold AS-IS, HOW-IS, WHERE-IS.

Key facts

• 3.6 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.9% in Palmyra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#556 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $149k implies a 338% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.62%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $12,637
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $58,297
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,173/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This farmhouse, originally built in 1950, just became available for the first time in decades! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house sits at the front of over 3 ½ acres, which also has an excellent, clear space that’s far enough away from the house, for whatever you imagination wants to build. House is ready for open potential…bring your contractor! Property is being sold AS-IS, HOW-IS, WHERE-IS.

2. 2026-02-02
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This farmhouse, originally built in 1950, just became available for the first time in decades! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house sits at the front of over 3 ½ acres, which also has an excellent, clear space that’s far enough away from the house, for whatever you imagination wants to build. House is ready for open potential…bring your contractor! Property is being sold AS-IS, HOW-IS, WHERE-IS.

3. 2025-12-18
   listed $149,000 Active 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This farmhouse, originally built in 1950, just became available for the first time in decades! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house sits at the front of over 3 ½ acres, which also has an excellent, clear space that’s far enough away from the house, for whatever you imagination wants to build. House is ready for open potential…bring your contractor! Property is being sold AS-IS, HOW-IS, WHERE-IS.

4. 2025-12-18
   listed $149,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This farmhouse, originally built in 1950, just became available for the first time in decades! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house sits at the front of over 3 ½ acres, which also has an excellent, clear space that’s far enough away from the house, for whatever you imagination wants to build. House is ready for open potential…bring your contractor! Property is being sold AS-IS, HOW-IS, WHERE-IS.

5. 2025-12-08
   historical $149,000
6. 2008-10-23
   historical
7. 2008-04-23
   listed $150,000
8. 1997-01-01
   soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,173
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $4,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $5,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Palmyra

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #556
• US rank: #25982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• City population: 16,896
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+338.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-02-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $149,000 CAAR
• 2025-12-18 Listed $149,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Coming Soon $149,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-10-23 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2008-04-23 Listed $150,000 CAAR
• 1997-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,173 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.