3756 19th St · Ecorse, MI
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.16%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.3/10.0
$72,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
Key facts
- Garage
- Basement
- Brick home
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Detached 2-car garage
- Utilities: Public water
- Home design: Cape Cod style; Single-family residence; Residential property
- Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1945
- Exterior features: Public water; Lot approximately 0.1 acre
Interior
- Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
- Bathrooms: One full bathroom (primary bathroom listed)
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
- Interior features: Three total rooms; Full basement
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
- Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 9.6% in Ecorse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#348 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
- Ecorse Public Schools (suburban): math 3% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #536 of 540 in MI (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $8k of equity ($501 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.68% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.77%
- Cash-on-cash
- 26.72%
- DSCR
- 2.19
- GRM
- 5.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $98,230
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3027 Bassett St | 0.06mi | 3/1.0 | 962 (-7%) | 3mo | $55,000 | $57 | 83 |
| 462 Campbell St | 0.37mi | 3/1.0 | 1,056 (+2%) | 1mo | $37,500 | $36 | 78 |
| 3953 19th St | 0.31mi | 3/1.0 | 1,066 (+3%) | 3mo | $50,000 | $47 | 78 |
| 2544 S Beatrice St | 0.34mi | 3/1.0 | 956 (-8%) | 3mo | $115,000 | $120 | 69 |
| 3846 18th St | 0.15mi | 3/1.5 | 1,168 (+13%) | 3mo | $50,000 | $43 | 67 |
| 349 Frazier St | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 | 1,036 (+0%) | 2mo | $120,000 | $116 | 62 |
| 2483 S Ethel St | 0.33mi | 3/1.0 | 1,167 (+13%) | 4mo | $80,000 | $69 | 60 |
| 26695 E Outer Dr | 0.69mi | 3/1.5 | 1,104 (+7%) | 4mo | $105,000 | $95 | 51 |
| 41 Le Blanc St | 0.73mi | 3/1.0 | 1,133 (+10%) | 2mo | $112,500 | $99 | 48 |
| 4133 16th St | 0.62mi | 3/1.0 | 1,174 (+14%) | 2mo | $130,000 | $111 | 47 |
| 4138 11th St | 0.71mi | 3/1.5 | 1,140 (+10%) | 4mo | $127,000 | $111 | 44 |
| 2955 S Dartmouth St | 0.68mi | 3/1.0 | 1,188 (+15%) | 5mo | $68,000 | $57 | 40 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 44.5%
- Equity multiple
- 4.36×
- Total profit
- $68,297
- Equity at exit
- $65,314
- IRR
- 38.5%
- Equity multiple
- 9.79×
- Total profit
- $178,536
- Equity at exit
- $140,852
Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 48229
- Home prices YoY
- 33.9%
- Active inventory
- 60
- Price-to-rent
- 5.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,220 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$380
- Tax from tax record
- −$102 /mo · $1,218/yr
- Insurance
- −$30
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$256
- Net cashflow
- $452
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $493 | -5% $472 | +0% $452 | +5% $431 | +10% $411 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $356 | -5% $404 | +0% $452 | +5% $500 | +10% $548 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $488 | -0.5pp $470 | base $452 | +0.5pp $433 | +1.0pp $414 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $18,125
- Closing costs
- $2,175
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3801 18th St Ecorse, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1196 | $1,150 | $0.96 | 18d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 3575 S Ethel St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 894 | $1,350 | $1.51 | 18d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 4015 16th St Ecorse, MI | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1170 | $1,300 | $1.11 | 25d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 1331 Pingree Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $1,300 | $1.79 | 0d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 4282 7th St Ecorse, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1144 | $1,250 | $1.09 | 25d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 1473 Empire Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1342 | $1,700 | $1.27 | 0d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 1537 Chandler Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $1,100 | $1.52 | 18d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 1581 Empire Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,350 | $1.50 | 25d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 1139 S Bassett St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 927 | $1,120 | $1.21 | 44d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 1139 S Bassett St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 927 | $1,050 | $1.13 | 25d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 1524 Cicotte Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,250 | $1.39 | 15d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 1774 Council Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,500 | $1.74 | 0d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 1532 Euclid St #1 Lincoln Park, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,450 | $1.71 | 25d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 97 Batavia St Unit 1 River Rouge, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $825 | $0.92 | 25d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 1774 College Ave Lincoln Park, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 944 | $1,525 | $1.62 | 0d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 875 Raupp Pl Unit 2 Lincoln Park, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $970 | $1.21 | 17d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 17 W James St Unit 17 W James Lower River Rouge, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $950 | $1.06 | 15d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 4435 High St Ecorse, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 792 | $1,095 | $1.38 | 6d | 1 | 1.47mi |
Listing history 29 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $72,500 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $72,500 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $72,500 Active 230 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $72,500 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $72,500 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $72,500 Active 226 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $72,500 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $72,500 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $72,500 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $72,500 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $72,500 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $72,500 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $72,500 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $72,500 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-04-01price $72,500 124-char remark
Show marketing remark (126 chars)
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
-
2026-04-01price $72,500 126-char remark
Show marketing remark (126 chars)
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
-
2026-04-01price $72,500
Show marketing remark (126 chars)
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
-
2025-10-30$75,000 Active 124-char remark
Show marketing remark (126 chars)
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
-
2025-10-30$75,000 Active 126-char remark
Show marketing remark (126 chars)
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
-
2025-10-30$75,000 Active
Show marketing remark (126 chars)
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: brick home in attractive neighborhood with basement and garage. Home is currently rented at $900.00.
-
2019-09-23soldstatus $129,000
-
2018-05-03soldstatus $24,377 Sold
-
2018-05-03soldstatus $24,377 Closed
-
2018-03-16status Pending
-
2018-03-13historical
-
2018-02-21status Pending
-
2018-02-21status Pending
-
2018-01-24$29,900 Active
-
2018-01-24$29,900 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,218 · $102/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,218 · $102/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $14,642
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,061
- − Property taxes
- −$1,218
- − Insurance
- −$362
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,171
- − Management
- −$1,171
- − Depreciation
- −$2,109
- Taxable income
- $4,548
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,091
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,332/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Ecorse Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 2612930
- Math proficiency
- 3% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 7% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $28,957
- Composite
- 3.46/100
- National rank
- #10075
- State rank
- #536 of 540 in MI
Livability — Ecorse
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #348
- US rank
- #8880
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Ecorse, MI
- City population
- 9,166
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,166
Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,675,273 people
- By 2030
- 1,620,300 · -3.3%
- By 2040
- 1,502,341 · -10.3%
- By 2050
- 1,384,039 · -17.4%
- By 2075
- 1,124,592 · -32.9%
- By 2100
- 881,193 · -47.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 45% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 86% English-only · Spanish 13%
Political lean MEDSL · Wayne
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 102.51%
- Current HPI
- 404.5927
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
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| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
|
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| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
|
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| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
|
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| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
|
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| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
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Price history
+142.5% since first listed15 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-01 Price Changed $72,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-04-01 Price Changed $72,500 REALCOMP
- 2026-04-01 Price Changed $72,500 SW Michigan MLS
- 2025-10-30 Listed $75,000 SW Michigan MLS
- 2025-10-30 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
- 2025-10-30 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2019-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
- 2018-05-03 Sold (MLS) $24,377 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2018-05-03 Sold (MLS) $24,377 REALCOMP
- 2018-03-16 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2018-03-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
- 2018-02-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2018-02-21 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2018-01-24 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2018-01-24 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
Property tax history
-3.3%/yrLatest (2025): $1,218 · -48.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…