863 Walker Dr #7 · University, FL 33613

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 199 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Billiards room
• Built 2025

Tags

• BILLIARDS ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE
• ONSITE COMMUNITY MANAGEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.0% vs local median 3.8% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 161% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.30%
• DSCR: 4.93
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $41,842
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $88,203
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33613

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $850	-5% $836	+0% $822	+5% $808	+10% $795
Rent	-10% $712	-5% $767	+0% $822	+5% $877	+10% $932
Rate	-1.0pp $842	-0.5pp $832	base $822	+0.5pp $812	+1.0pp $801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14600 N Nebraska Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$1,250	$2.17	25d	1	0.11mi
14600 N Nebraska Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$1,150	$2.00	6d	1	0.11mi
14524 N Nebraska Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,640	$1.63	25d	1	0.15mi
14524 N Nebraska Ave Unit 204A Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,650	$1.64	25d	1	0.15mi
14350 Ambrosia St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,385	$2.40	0d	17	0.33mi
1250 Skipper Rd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,299	$2.00	25d	1	0.39mi
14912 Pinecrest Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	5d	1	0.40mi
1112 E 142nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,675	$1.50	25d	2	0.45mi
202 Windwood Oaks Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,762	$2.47	0d	9	0.60mi
13944 Sandy Hill Loop Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,500	$1.99	0d	4	0.67mi
1500 Jo Ann Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$1,150	$2.00	25d	1	0.72mi
1501 E 142nd Ave Apt 102 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	17d	1	0.74mi
14001 N 15th St Unit 202 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.74mi
1503 E 142nd Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.75mi
1503 E 142nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	14d	1	0.75mi
1503 E 142nd Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	5d	1	0.75mi
14003 N 15th St Unit 101 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.75mi
1503 E 142nd Ave Unit 201 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	17d	1	0.75mi
1504 E 140th Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.76mi
1504 E 140th Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	12d	1	0.76mi
14004 San Casa Pl Unit 202 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.76mi
14003 San Casa Pl Unit 202 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.78mi
14001 San Casa Pl Unit 101 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$900	$1.43	25d	1	0.79mi
1302 Cooperstown Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,583	$1.84	0d	9	0.79mi
1810 E 143rd Ave Unit 2 Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	730	$1,345	$1.84	25d	1	0.83mi
1808 E 143rd Ave Unit 2 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	865	$1,850	$2.14	15d	1	0.84mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Unit DRIVE41-B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,375	$1.67	25d	1	0.86mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	25d	1	0.86mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Unit DRIVE35-C Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	25d	1	0.86mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	12d	1	0.86mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Unit DRIVE19-B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,400	$1.65	25d	1	0.86mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Unit DRIVE31-A Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	23d	1	0.86mi
13533 Gragston Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	662	$1,275	$1.92	6d	6	0.92mi
13617 Fletcher Regency Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,525	$2.10	25d	6	0.96mi
13911 N 19th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$1,700	$2.24	15d	8	0.97mi
13402 Coastal Key Rd Tampa, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1109	$1,383	$1.25	0d	9	1.03mi
13710 N 19th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	6d	13	1.03mi
14609 Banyan Bluff Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,749	$2.01	3d	16	1.04mi
14350 N 22nd St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	610	$999	$1.64	4d	1	1.10mi
2205 Irene St Unit 2 Lutz, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	25d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $39,900 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $39,900 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,400 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-04-29
    price $39,400 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

14. 2026-03-26
    price $44,700 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

15. 2026-02-01
    price $49,700 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

16. 2026-01-07
    status Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

17. 2026-01-07
    price $50,200 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

18. 2025-06-23
    historical 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

19. 2025-05-15
    listed $15,300 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Chalet Village is an active and exciting 55+ Senior Community. Located in Tampa, FL, your brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home awaits you. With amenities such as a library, a clubhouse, and a billiards room, you can enjoy your surroundings as a resident of Chalet Village. Inside, features such as e-insulated vinyl windows, premium entry doors, and a walk-in master closet will make you fall in love as you walk throughout the home. This one won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,355
• After-tax cash flow: $7,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including major work on the exterior and roof. Immediate action is needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Signs of wear and tear
• Major roof — Aged appearance
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and chipping

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and home value
• Both repair and replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and home value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Signs of wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and home value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — University

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #603

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: University, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 41,570
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,591
• Household income: $44,032
• Rent vs Own: 68.1% rent · 31.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4426.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.59%
• Current HPI: 367.4057
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+157.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $39,400 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $44,700 Zillow
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $49,700 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $50,200 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-15 Listed $15,300 Zillow