None · Deer Park, NY 11729

$3,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1974 9,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Must show credit report less than 30 days old. This is a whole house rental, Big fenced in back yard, Tenant is respondsible for lawn maintance, Snow removal, and all utulities. New Refridgerator and Microwave.

Key facts

• New refrigerator
• Fenced in back yard
• New microwave

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Indirect water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil-fired); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Full unfinished basement; Full unfinished attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $3,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$626,500) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 875.3% vs local median 3.0% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#216 in NY, #3,358 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Park Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #181 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John Quincy Adams Primary School (484 students, 47% FRL); Robert Frost Middle School (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 903 students, 49% FRL); Deer Park High School (math 95% / reading 57%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,314 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 28% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,447 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 92.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 875.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3103.60%
• DSCR: 139.09
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $626,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Duke St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+4%)	2mo	$555,000	$424	77
54 Wilson Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-4%)	6mo	$669,000	$558	73
49 Catalpa St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	1mo	$735,000	$565	64
1090 Brookdale Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+5%)	5mo	$582,250	$442	56
389 Beebe Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+1%)	1mo	$675,000	$534	56
77 Carlls Path	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+8%)	6mo	$675,000	$500	56
331 E 3rd St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,153 (-8%)	6mo	$535,000	$464	55
105 Commack Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+15%)	6mo	$610,000	$425	55
50 Carlls Path	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-14%)	5mo	$597,000	$555	53
235 E 1st St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,162 (-7%)	3mo	$505,000	$435	52
258 E 5th St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+13%)	0mo	$754,000	$531	51
281 Carlls Path	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,315 (+5%)	4mo	$655,000	$498	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 165.20×
• Total profit: $160,912
• Equity at exit: $522

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 356.29×
• Total profit: $348,185
• Equity at exit: $303

Cash invested: $980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11729

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $52/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $2,535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $31

Max offer price $3,500

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,537	-5% $2,536	+0% $2,535	+5% $2,533	+10% $2,532
Rent	-10% $2,279	-5% $2,407	+0% $2,535	+5% $2,663	+10% $2,790
Rate	-1.0pp $2,536	-0.5pp $2,535	base $2,535	+0.5pp $2,534	+1.0pp $2,533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $875
• Closing costs: $105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Franklin Ave Deer Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	46d	1	0.29mi
126 Sutton Ct Unit 126 Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1109	$3,305	$2.98	5d	1	0.38mi
153 Sutton Ct Unit 153 Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,510	$3.31	5d	1	0.38mi
104 Sutton Ct Unit 104 Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1109	$3,305	$2.98	5d	1	0.40mi
500 Sutton Ct Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1084	$3,418	$3.15	0d	1	0.41mi
12 Jacqueline Way Unit 12 North Babylon, NY	2.0	2.0	1240	$3,500	$2.82	4d	1	0.48mi
100 Commons Way Deer Park, NY	2.0	1.0	987	$1,889	$1.91	19d	1	0.50mi
122 W 1st St Deer Park, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	46d	1	0.95mi
1050 Sullivan St Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,300	$2.54	5d	1	1.01mi
17 Chimney Ln Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	24d	1	1.16mi
1593 August Rd North Babylon, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$3,705	$4.36	0d	1	1.36mi
1525 August Rd Unit 1525 Babylon, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,505	$3.19	46d	1	1.44mi
1594 August Rd Unit 1594 Babylon, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,565	$3.24	19d	1	1.47mi
1746 August Rd Unit 1746 North Babylon, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,600	$3.27	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $3,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$196
• − Property taxes: −$52
• − Insurance: −$18
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,109
• − Management: −$3,109
• − Depreciation: −$102
• Taxable income: $32,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,747
• After-tax cash flow: $22,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608880
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,561
• Composite: 55.26/100
• National rank: #1268
• State rank: #181 of 590 in NY

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #3358

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, NY
• City population: 26,647
• Population (ZIP): 26,647

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Black 12% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Armenian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -669.80%
• Current HPI: 285.3175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $3,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,479 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.