5617 138th St N · Hugo, MN 55038

$264,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · Townhouse public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2002 1,698 sqft lot $173/sqft · 10% below area Est $296k · 10% under $319/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Corner unit
• Walk in closet

Tags

• CORNER UNIT
• THREE SIDED FIREPLACE
• LARGE UPPER LEVEL LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($998/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $241,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,642
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -10.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-37,452
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,079
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,764/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$319
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14891 Generation Ave N Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	2100	$2,197	$1.05	43d	1	1.23mi
15119 Fanning Dr N Hugo, MN	4.0	3.0	1982	$2,750	$1.39	2d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $319 · $3,828/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $264,900 Pending 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 101 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $264,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 100 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    status Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

14. 2026-05-01
    price $269,900 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

15. 2026-05-01
    historical 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

16. 2026-04-25
    price $274,900 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

17. 2026-02-20
    listed $279,900 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

18. 2026-02-20
    historical

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Rare corner unit in Pineview Meadows, Flooded with natural light on three sides, with a three sided fireplace, covered porch and semi-private bak patio. The main level features updated laminate flooring. The large upper level laundry room provides convenience and additional storage. Three bedrooms total to include a primary bedroom with a walk in closet, and 3/4 bath and the additional bedrooms offer comfortable space for guests, an office, or hobbies. Three bathrooms to include a 1/2 bath on the main floor. A two car garage completes this well maintained property. The HOA covers lawn and snow care, and sanitation. Pets welcome and rentals are allowed.

19. 2025-12-12
    listed $284,900 Active
20. 2025-12-10
    historical
21. 2018-09-28
    soldstatus $190,000
22. 2018-09-06
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold
23. 2018-08-20
    status Pending
24. 2018-07-29
    historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission
25. 2018-07-25
    listed $189,000 Active
26. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus $144,500 Sold
27. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus $144,500
28. 2015-06-17
    status Pending
29. 2015-06-05
    historical Contingent - Inspection
30. 2015-06-01
    listed $142,500 Active
31. 2008-07-16
    soldstatus $139,000
32. 2008-06-04
    listed $149,900
33. 2006-05-15
    soldstatus $195,435
34. 2006-04-28
    soldstatus $195,435
35. 2006-02-25
    historical
36. 2006-01-13
    listed $193,500
37. 2003-04-03
    historical
38. 2002-12-23
    soldstatus $175,458
39. 2002-12-23
    soldstatus $175,458
40. 2002-10-14
    listed $175,458

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,865 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,764
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − HOA: −$3,828
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$3,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$782
• After-tax cash flow: $1,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $274,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $284,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-06 Sold (MLS) $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-25 Listed $189,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $144,500 Public Records
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) $144,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-17 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-01 Listed $142,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-16 Sold (MLS) $139,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-04 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $195,435 Public Records
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $195,435 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-13 Listed $193,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $175,458 Public Records
• 2002-12-23 Sold (MLS) $175,458 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-14 Listed $175,458 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,764 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.