2205 Willow Crossing Pkwy #261 · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$189,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into luxury with this beautiful new construction home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms designed for comfort and modern living. The open-concept layout includes a stunning kitchen with a large center island and a walk-in pantry offering plenty of storage space. Situated on a spacious corner lot, this property also includes a storage shed and plenty of outdoor room to enjoy. Conveniently located near our community amenities, this move-in ready home combines style, space, and an ideal location. Contact us today to schedule a tour or learn more!

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Rocky mountains
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CORNER LOT
• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• ROCKY MOUNTAINS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,595 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,294
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $13,193
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $189,995

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $356	+0% $290	+5% $224	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $130	-5% $210	+0% $290	+5% $370	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $338	base $290	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,499
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	5d	1	0.04mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	5d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,995 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,995 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,995 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,995 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,995 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,995 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,995 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,995 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,995 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,995 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,995 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,995 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,995 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,995 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $189,995 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Step into luxury with this beautiful new construction home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms designed for comfort and modern living. The open-concept layout includes a stunning kitchen with a large center island and a walk-in pantry offering plenty of storage space. Situated on a spacious corner lot, this property also includes a storage shed and plenty of outdoor room to enjoy. Conveniently located near our community amenities, this move-in ready home combines style, space, and an ideal location. Contact us today to schedule a tour or learn more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $3,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern features and a well-maintained exterior. Minor landscaping and interior paint updates could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $189,995 Zillow