5820 Royal Hills Cir · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$291,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2006 8,451 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale BANK APPROVED - OPEN HOUSE 11/20 1-4p -Back On The Market-Spacious 4 bedroom home with over 2,000 square feet! Very popular open floor plan. Large, eat-in kitchen comes fully-equipped featuring work island, dual sinks and plenty of storage. Dreamy master suite is generously proportioned and allows for maximum privacy. It offers dual closets and a large master bath with soaking tub and separate shower. Homeowner has added many upgrades including water softener and alarm system. Situated on alarge lot with no rear neighbors, this home offers lots of privacy. Community is conveniently located to Hwy 27 and other major roadways. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 11/20, 1-4pm

Key facts

• 8,451 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No CDD; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: HOA named CHRISTINE; HOA required; HOA fee $300 annually ($25 monthly equivalent); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One-story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of approximately 0.19 acres
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Shed(s); Trees and landscaped yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($837/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,341/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1270% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $291k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,071 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-44,922
• Equity at exit: $43,389

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,301
• Equity at exit: $25,160

Cash invested: $81,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $291,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $152	+0% $70	+5% $-13	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-23	+0% $70	+5% $162	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $144	base $70	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,750
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,900	$1.11	13d	1	0.24mi
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	16d	1	0.34mi
279 Sunfish Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,200	$1.13	25d	1	0.35mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	25d	1	0.39mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	5d	1	0.39mi
957 Gotthard Pass Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2566	$2,751	$1.07	5d	1	0.43mi
877 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,875	$1.02	25d	1	0.49mi
326 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	2696	$2,600	$0.96	25d	1	0.54mi
1127 Seedorf Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,400	$1.20	5d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   price $291,000
3. 2026-02-19
   price $299,900
4. 2026-01-22
   listed $315,000 Active
5. 2011-02-07
   soldstatus $87,500
6. 2011-01-31
   soldstatus $87,500 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Short Sale BANK APPROVED - OPEN HOUSE 11/20 1-4p -Back On The Market-Spacious 4 bedroom home with over 2,000 square feet! Very popular open floor plan. Large, eat-in kitchen comes fully-equipped featuring work island, dual sinks and plenty of storage. Dreamy master suite is generously proportioned and allows for maximum privacy. It offers dual closets and a large master bath with soaking tub and separate shower. Homeowner has added many upgrades including water softener and alarm system. Situated on alarge lot with no rear neighbors, this home offers lots of privacy. Community is conveniently located to Hwy 27 and other major roadways. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 11/20, 1-4pm

7. 2010-03-23
   listed $88,500 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Short Sale BANK APPROVED - OPEN HOUSE 11/20 1-4p -Back On The Market-Spacious 4 bedroom home with over 2,000 square feet! Very popular open floor plan. Large, eat-in kitchen comes fully-equipped featuring work island, dual sinks and plenty of storage. Dreamy master suite is generously proportioned and allows for maximum privacy. It offers dual closets and a large master bath with soaking tub and separate shower. Homeowner has added many upgrades including water softener and alarm system. Situated on alarge lot with no rear neighbors, this home offers lots of privacy. Community is conveniently located to Hwy 27 and other major roadways. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 11/20, 1-4pm

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,129/yr (+$94/mo · 87.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,301
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$4,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $1,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+228.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $291,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2011-01-31 Sold (MLS) $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-23 Listed $88,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,286 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.