992 Valley River Ave · Murphy, NC 28906

$199,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1912 0.32 ac lot Est $370k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

Key facts

• Flat corner lot
• Prime location
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FLAT CORNER LOT
• PRIME LOCATION
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 13,939 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($850/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.6% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#292 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cherokee County Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #90 of 178 in NC (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Murphy Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 536 students, 99% FRL); Murphy Middle (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 316 students, 64% FRL); Murphy High (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 489 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cherokee County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $200k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,094 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,336
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1022 Valley River Ave	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,548 (+12%)	21mo	$460,000	$181	50
255 Thompson Hollow Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-12%)	18mo	$325,000	$163	26
255 Thompson Hollow Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-12%)	18mo	$325,000	$163	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,930
• Equity at exit: $29,776

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,839
• Equity at exit: $17,266

Cash invested: $55,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28906

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 1130
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,047
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $199,700

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $127	+0% $71	+5% $14	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $7	+0% $71	+5% $135	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $122	base $71	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,925
• Closing costs: $5,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,700 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,700 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,700 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,700 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,700 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,700 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,700 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,700 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on marketlisting id $199,700 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 211 DOM
18. 2025-11-01
    listed $229,000 Active
19. 2024-12-30
    soldstatus $126,000 Closed 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

20. 2024-12-10
    status Pending 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

21. 2024-12-02
    price $126,700 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

22. 2024-11-12
    price $146,300 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

23. 2024-10-25
    price $166,500 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

24. 2024-10-10
    price $181,700 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

25. 2024-09-25
    price $197,100 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

26. 2024-09-09
    listed $200,400 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 1912, this two story home offers approximately 2272 finished square feet, three bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 13939 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

27. 2024-06-20
    price $239,000
28. 2024-04-12
    listed $249,000 Active
29. 2006-01-25
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,638 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$686/yr (+$57/mo · 72.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,186
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$5,809
• Taxable loss: −$2,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $1,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cherokee County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700780
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,424
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4542
• State rank: #90 of 178 in NC

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #12327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphy, NC
• Population (ZIP): 19,712

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,672 people
• By 2030: 24,504 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 21,955 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 19,592 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 15,128 · -41.1%
• By 2100: 11,203 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.5) · D 20.8% · R 78.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -57.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.5 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+46.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.19%
• Current HPI: 211.1795
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+108.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-01 Listed $229,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-12-30 Sold (MLS) $126,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $126,700 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $146,300 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $166,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $181,700 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $197,100 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-09 Listed $200,400 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $239,000 NEGBOR
• 2024-04-12 Listed $249,000 NEGBOR
• 2006-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.