1216 Winston Dr · Jefferson City, MO 65101

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1940 0.25 ac lot Est $252k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An incredible sweat-equity opportunity! Check out this Brick Ranch with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on a one level corner lot in Moreau Heights School District. This estate property is being sold 'as-is, ' offering a unique chance for the savvy buyer to clear it out and customize it exactly to their taste. Make this your dream home from the ground up or it could also be a great flip project.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single-family; Above-grade finished area reported as 1,357

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.25 acres; Lot dimensions roughly 150 x 75 x 150 x 75; Public water; Public sewer; Subdivision: WINSTON HEIGHTS

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range; No fireplace; 6 total rooms; No basement (crawl space)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in MO, #838 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moreau Heights Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 328 students, 60% FRL); Lewis And Clark Middle (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 1,005 students, 56% FRL); Jefferson City High (math 46% / reading 63%, grade C-, #69 of 521 statewide, top 15%, 1,296 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,402
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1026 Roseridge Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	22mo	$255,000	$186	59
532 Aurora Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+12%)	15mo	$189,900	$125	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,771
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $15,591
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65101

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $903/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $291	+0% $253	+5% $215	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $199	+0% $253	+5% $308	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $287	base $253	+0.5pp $218	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 386-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $134,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $903 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$903
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $2,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jefferson City

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #838

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson City, MO
• City population: 41,145
• Population (ZIP): 29,777

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.16%
• Current HPI: 209.3832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $134,900 HMMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $134,900 JCMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $903 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.