5101 Lake Marion Golf Resort #5101 · Poinciana, FL 34759

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Condo public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2005 $419/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lake Marion Golf Resort Condo! Whether you're looking to generate additional income through short-term rentals, enjoy a peaceful retirement in a resort-style community, or own a beautifully maintained Florida getaway. This property offers an exceptional opportunity. This well-maintained condo is located within a gated resort community featuring outstanding amenities, including two sparkling swimming pools, a clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball courts, and beautifully landscaped grounds. Residents and guests enjoy a relaxed lifestyle surrounded by nature, scenic lakes, and recreational opportunities. Appreciate the potential for short-term rental income, while sea

Key facts

• Two swimming pools
• Fitness center
• Landscaped grounds

Tags

• GATED RESORT COMMUNITY
• TWO SWIMMING POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with required association approval; Monthly condo fee: $246; Additional monthly association fee: $173; Total monthly fees: $419; Total annual fees: $5,028; Association amenities include: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, playground, recreation facilities, maintenance, security, community mailbox, street lights; Community features also list buyer approval required and special community restrictions; Pets allowed (weight limit not restrictive)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Completed condition; Accessible entrance; PUD zoning; Faces southwest; One-level unit (floor 1)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built/part of building number 5101
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Paved lot; Mature landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry in kitchen; Inside laundry; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,240 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-28,730
• Equity at exit: $38,259

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-37,406
• Equity at exit: $36,871

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $539/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$419
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $150,240

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-91	+0% $-140	+5% $-190	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-206	+0% $-140	+5% $-74	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-96	base $-140	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6101 Lake Marion Golf Resort Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	981	$1,229	$1.25	24d	1	0.02mi
1202 Lake Marion Golf Resort #1202 Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	981	$1,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.04mi
341 Port Pleasant Dr Unit 341 Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	812	$1,450	$1.79	24d	1	0.06mi
145 Ocean Bluff Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	0.08mi
14201 Indian Creek Dr #14201 Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,450	$1.19	24d	1	0.11mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	11d	1	0.33mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	15d	1	0.34mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	24d	1	0.50mi
1912 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1420	$1,995	$1.40	24d	1	0.57mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	24d	1	0.58mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	15d	1	0.64mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$1,695	$1.13	3d	1	0.66mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	14d	1	0.70mi
1786 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.78mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.79mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,390	$1.32	3d	1	0.80mi
1769 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,299	$1.66	24d	1	0.82mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	24d	1	0.83mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	4d	1	0.83mi
1560 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	24d	1	0.86mi
1601 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,550	$1.68	11d	1	0.86mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	15d	1	0.88mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	24d	1	1.01mi
260 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,400	$1.24	3d	1	1.11mi
223 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,595	$1.08	24d	1	1.18mi
1731 Minnow Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	1.28mi
106 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,575	$1.48	3d	1	1.34mi
8 Flatfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	4d	1	1.39mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	24d	1	1.43mi
12 Herring Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,613	$1.53	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $419 · $5,028/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$913/yr (+$76/mo · 169.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$539
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − HOA: −$5,028
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $539 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.