154 Geranium Way · Savannah, GA 31302

$312,331

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,779 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $176/sqft · at area comps Est $319k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In this new single-story home, the foyer extends to an open living space in the kitchen, dining room and a family room with sliding doors leading to the patio. There are four bedrooms in total to provide family members with their own restful haven. The owner's suite is comprised of a bedroom, attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Rounding out the home is a convenient two-car garage for versatile storage space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($257/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Savannah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#1 in GA, #397 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment D, schools F.
• Savannah-Chatham County (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #134 of 174 in GA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,694 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (973 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,759/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chatham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $275,932 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,467
• List price: $312,331
• Delta: -2.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Geranium Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,779 (0%)	1mo	$310,000	$174	99
103 Thistle Blossom Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,779 (0%)	2mo	$315,558	$177	97
138 Geranium Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+6%)	1mo	$320,000	$170	89
104 Petalridge Way	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,869 (+5%)	0mo	$316,659	$169	87
105 Thistle Blossom Way	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,869 (+5%)	1mo	$315,829	$169	86
108 Petalridge Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+6%)	0mo	$270,000	$143	83
135 Barefoot Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,779 (0%)	9mo	$328,570	$185	70
134 Geranium Way	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,027 (+14%)	0mo	$329,748	$163	68
109 Petalridge Way	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-15%)	0mo	$301,826	$199	65
119 Crimson Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+6%)	10mo	$316,963	$168	58
127 Crimson Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,869 (+5%)	10mo	$325,000	$174	54
106 Crimson Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,014 (+13%)	9mo	$329,000	$163	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,292
• Equity at exit: $46,570

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-79,215
• Equity at exit: $27,005

Cash invested: $87,453 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.5 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $333,693 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31302

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,638
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,685/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,732

Max offer price $312,331

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $129	+0% $21	+5% $-87	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-88	+0% $21	+5% $130	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $101	base $21	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,083
• Closing costs: $9,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Saltgrass LN Bloomingdale, GA	5.0	3.5	2407	$2,500	$1.04	93d	1	0.23mi
110 Barefoot Dr Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,800	$1.40	93d	1	0.37mi
142 Bottlebrush Dr Bloomingdale, GA	5.0	3.5	2357	$2,650	$1.12	93d	1	0.37mi
154 Bottlebrush Dr Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	2.5	1853	$2,400	$1.30	93d	1	0.42mi
201 Powers Pass Savannah, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1245	$2,452	$1.97	63d	25	0.67mi
100 Firefly Cir Bloomingdale, GA	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1892	$2,638	$1.39	72d	1	0.92mi
107 Firefly Cir Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	2.0	1904	$3,500	$1.84	93d	1	0.95mi
109 Exmoor Cir Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,650	$1.17	72d	1	1.13mi
459 Coconut Dr Bloomingdale, GA	5.0	3.0	2361	$2,500	$1.06	93d	1	1.35mi
455 Coconut Dr Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	2.5	2174	$2,350	$1.08	93d	1	1.37mi
477 Coconut Dr Bloomingdale, GA	5.0	3.0	2174	$2,500	$1.15	93d	1	1.38mi
773 Blue Moon Xing Pooler, GA	5.0	4.0	2449	$3,400	$1.39	93d	1	1.41mi
154 Guana Ln Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,700	$1.41	93d	1	1.41mi
497 Coconut Dr Bloomingdale, GA	5.0	3.0	2361	$2,800	$1.19	93d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,331 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,331 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $312,331 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $312,331 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   price $312,331 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $307,331 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $307,331 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $307,331 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $307,331 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-05-05
    listed $319,431 Active 413-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,495
• − Property taxes: −$4,685
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,649
• − Management: −$2,649
• − Depreciation: −$9,086
• Taxable loss: −$5,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $1,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Hampstead K-8 School High New Hampstead High School F GA #254/424 Nat'l #14,713/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Savannah-Chatham County
• NCES district ID: 1301020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,443
• Composite: 20.14/100
• National rank: #8639
• State rank: #134 of 174 in GA

A Composite livability gradescore 86/100

Livability — Savannah

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #397

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Savannah, GA
• County: Effingham County · 332,584 people
• City population: 216,564
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 8,899
• Household income: $68,998
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Chatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 332,584 people
• By 2030: 355,508 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 400,030 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 443,019 · +33.2%
• By 2075: 534,579 · +60.7%
• By 2100: 583,863 · +75.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chatham

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 58.6% · R 40.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+18.8 2016: D+14.5 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.89%
• Current HPI: 293.9427
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B