428 Geyer St · Dayton, OH 45405

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1915 4,487 sqft lot $44/sqft · 20% below area Est $87k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming early-1900s home located in Dayton, offering over 1,600 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. Built in 1915, this property blends classic character with several key mechanical updates, including a newer roof, furnace, plumbing improvements, and a refreshed shower--providing a solid foundation for its next owner. This home presents a strong value-add opportunity for investors or owner-occupants looking to build equity. While some repairs and cosmetic improvements are still needed, the heavy lifting has already begun. Being sold as-is, this property offers significant upside potential.

Key facts

• 4,487 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Natural gas available
• Home design: Two-story residence; Residential zoning
• Construction: Aluminum siding, brick, and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Residential lot (approximately 45 x 99)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the second level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Wogaman Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #645 of 654 statewide, top 99%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $70k implies a 626% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.27%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,204
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -32.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
534 Geyer St	0.07mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,640 (+2%)	3mo	$54,375	$33	86
104 Five Oaks Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,538 (-4%)	6mo	$46,970	$31	85
33 Rockwood Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,690 (+5%)	3mo	$76,100	$45	70
409 Kenilworth Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-0%)	2mo	$142,700	$89	64
372 Kenilworth Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,591 (-1%)	4mo	$125,000	$79	64
82 Fountain Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,602 (-0%)	5mo	$40,000	$25	64
238 Delaware Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-2%)	2mo	$35,000	$22	58
509 Homewood Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,420 (-12%)	4mo	$95,000	$67	58
1525 Viola Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	5mo	$52,000	$35	58
506 Kenilworth Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,499 (-6%)	5mo	$120,000	$80	52
735 Homewood Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,378 (-14%)	2mo	$145,500	$106	48
119 Audubon Park	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,384 (-14%)	1mo	$174,000	$126	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $22,876
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $68,936
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45405

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $587

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $531	+0% $511	+5% $491	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $462	+0% $511	+5% $559	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $529	base $511	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
534 Geyer St Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,530	$0.93	25d	1	0.07mi
412 Forest Ave Unit 414 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.08mi
136 Rockwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,200	$0.83	45d	1	0.31mi
138 Rockwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,200	$0.83	25d	1	0.31mi
515 W Grand Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,025	$0.93	25d	1	0.40mi
515 W Grand Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,025	$0.93	5d	1	0.40mi
515 W Grand Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,025	$0.93	45d	1	0.40mi
1501 Viola Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1952	$1,175	$0.60	16d	1	0.46mi
132 Wroe Ave Unit 132 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1934	$1,297	$0.67	45d	1	0.47mi
338 Kenwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1512	$1,195	$0.79	45d	1	0.53mi
115 W Monument Ave Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1053	$2,199	$2.09	4d	20	0.63mi
905 Neal Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	0.64mi
942 Harvard Blvd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,200	$0.75	5d	1	0.70mi
18 Holt St Unit 24 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,450	$1.07	16d	1	0.74mi
140 E Monument Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,344	$2.24	4d	11	0.76mi
848 Riverview Ter Apt 205 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	16d	1	0.81mi
848 Riverview Ter Apt 607 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	25d	1	0.81mi
1067 Salem Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	45d	1	0.88mi
1067 Salem Ave Unit 3 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	45d	1	0.88mi
1011 N Broadway St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1700	$950	$0.56	45d	1	0.88mi
1067 Salem Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	45d	1	0.88mi
518 Delaware Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$750	$0.50	45d	1	0.89mi
100 N Jefferson St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,532	$1.92	5d	11	0.89mi
821 Herman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1456	$1,100	$0.76	23d	1	0.92mi
265 Victor Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1204	$900	$0.75	45d	1	0.96mi
1225 Amherst Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1548	$1,300	$0.84	16d	1	0.96mi
234 Santa Clara Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,125	$0.82	45d	1	0.98mi
See individual Unit addresses Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,297	$2.48	45d	10	0.98mi
31 E Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	25d	1	1.00mi
42 S Ludlow St Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,068	$1.24	45d	1	1.02mi
204 Sears St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0–2.5	1124	$2,793	$2.48	4d	10	1.03mi
40 W 4th St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	45d	7	1.07mi
35 S Saint Clair St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,844	$2.01	5d	18	1.08mi
101 W Norman Ave Unit 101 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$945	$0.59	45d	1	1.09mi
41 W Fairview Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,200	$0.83	16d	1	1.10mi
167 W Hudson Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,185	$0.88	45d	1	1.13mi
424 Lexington Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,025	$0.67	45d	1	1.13mi
500 E 3rd St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,660	$1.78	5d	16	1.14mi
112 Webster St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$2,198	$2.74	4d	63	1.14mi
1378 Cory Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1300	$975	$0.75	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $70,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-04-23
   price $59,000 633-char remark
10. 2026-04-17
    price $69,900 633-char remark
11. 2026-03-28
    listed $75,000 Active 633-char remark
12. 1978-01-05
    soldstatus $9,643

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $810 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,276
• After-tax cash flow: $4,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 18,955
• Household income: $43,973
• Rent vs Own: 64.0% rent · 36.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.58%
• Current HPI: 173.4962
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+625.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $70,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $59,000 CBRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $69,900 CBRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $75,000 CBRMLS
• 1978-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $9,643 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $810 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.