765 W Herring St · Sour Lake, TX 77659

$83,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1973 5,227 sqft lot $68/sqft · 49% below area Est $165k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Opportunity in Hardin-Jefferson ISD! This property is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Located in the highly sought-after Hardin-Jefferson school district, this home is a fantastic opportunity for investors to flip or use as a rental, or anyone looking to customize their own home. This property offers endless possibilities, call to schedule a showing today.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 166 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-950/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $70k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $70k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.8% in Sour Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#352 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sour Lake El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 767 students, 42% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 59% / reading 47%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 617 students, 41% FRL); Hardin-Jefferson H S (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 749 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,910 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,874
• List price: $83,900
• Delta: -49.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 S Merchant St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	4mo	$210,000	$156	64
1255 S Gustan St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-14%)	0mo	$156,000	$147	58
735 4th St	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,217 (-1%)	22mo	$180,000	$148	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-18,547
• Equity at exit: $12,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-22,268
• Equity at exit: $7,254

Cash invested: $23,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77659

• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $69,910

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-55	+0% $-79	+5% $-103	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-111	+0% $-79	+5% $-48	+10% $-16
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-58	base $-79	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,975
• Closing costs: $2,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 4th St Unit DW Sour Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	1073	$800	$0.75	15d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $83,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,900 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,900 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,900 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,900 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,900 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,900 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $83,900 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-01-06
    listed $83,900 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity in Hardin-Jefferson ISD! This property is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Located in the highly sought-after Hardin-Jefferson school district, this home is a fantastic opportunity for investors to flip or use as a rental, or anyone looking to customize their own home. This property offers endless possibilities, call to schedule a showing today.

17. 2025-06-22
    listed $83,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,535 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,700
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$768
• − Management: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$2,441
• Taxable loss: −$2,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$559
• After-tax cash flow: $-391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822410
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,336
• Composite: 45.14/100
• National rank: #2682
• State rank: #135 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sour Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #7687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sour Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,847

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.72%
• Current HPI: 184.5266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $83,900 BBOR
• 2025-06-22 Listed $83,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.