8000 Warren Woods Rd Lot 96 · Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert, MI 49128

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1988 49 ac lot $650/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living in Harbor Country. Set on a wooded lot overlooking the private pond in beautiful Lakewood Estates, this home offers comfort, thoughtful updates, and a peaceful setting. Recent improvements include a newer roof, remodeled primary suite, new carpet, and fresh paint, making it move-in ready. Outdoor features include two decks, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a 2-car carport for added convenience. Located adjacent to Chikaming Township Park, with the Galien River, boat launch, trails, and gardens nearby, this property offers easy access to nature while remaining close to local amenities, dining, and all that Harbor Country has to offer. Call today for your private showing.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Fresh paint
• New carpet

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• PRIVATE POND
• NEWER ROOF
• REMODELED PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,568; Directions: Red Arrow to Warren Woods Rd or Sawyer exit to Three Oaks Rd and Right on Warren Woods.
• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, pets allowed, and pool; Association fee covers trash, snow removal, and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity available; Natural gas connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Ranch style; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1988; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Cul-de-sac location; Shed(s) on property; Private pond (pond waterfront); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 12); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 17); Bedroom 2 (10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (8 x 13)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Window treatments; Fireplace in formal dining area; Total of 8 rooms; Basement (other type)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (9 x 11); Washer; Dryer; Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• River Valley School District (rural): math 30% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #171 of 540 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $120k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.59%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $393,568
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8494 Warren Woods Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,353 (-14%)	24mo	$340,000	$251	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,253
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,559
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49128

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $226	+0% $184	+5% $143	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $101	+0% $184	+5% $268	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $215	base $184	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Affordable living in Harbor Country. Set on a wooded lot overlooking the private pond in beautiful Lakewood Estates, this home offers comfort, thoughtful updates, and a peaceful setting. Recent improvements include a newer roof, remodeled primary suite, new carpet, and fresh paint, making it move-in ready. Outdoor features include two decks, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a 2-car carport for added convenience. Located adjacent to Chikaming Township Park, with the Galien River, boat launch, trails, and gardens nearby, this property offers easy access to nature while remaining close to local amenities, dining, and all that Harbor Country has to offer. Call today for your private showing.

16. 2026-05-31
    listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Affordable living in Harbor Country. Set on a wooded lot overlooking the private pond in beautiful Lakewood Estates, this home offers comfort, thoughtful updates, and a peaceful setting. Recent improvements include a newer roof, remodeled primary suite, new carpet, and fresh paint, making it move-in ready. Outdoor features include two decks, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a 2-car carport for added convenience. Located adjacent to Chikaming Township Park, with the Galien River, boat launch, trails, and gardens nearby, this property offers easy access to nature while remaining close to local amenities, dining, and all that Harbor Country has to offer. Call today for your private showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$196
• After-tax cash flow: $2,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2629790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,899
• Composite: 36.67/100
• National rank: #4609
• State rank: #171 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 112
• Population (ZIP): 3,461

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.74%
• Current HPI: 273.5945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+100.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-31 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listed $119,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2005-10-21 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-10-21 Listed $59,900 SW Michigan MLS