14461 Duval Pl W · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2015 0.79 ac lot Est $225k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

.8 acres sold in conjunction w/MLS #'s 207322, 207357, 207350, 207360, 207366, 207292. Property zoned residential but can be rezoned as commercial.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Fully fenced
• Wide usable lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• WIDE USABLE LOT
• GORGEOUS MATURE TREES
• QUIET STREET
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating and central air conditioning; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-300/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Biscayne Elementary School (math 58% / reading 39%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 796 students, 62% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $249k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,997 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,532
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14513 W Duval Pl W	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	4mo	$225,000	$189	93
13178 Duval Lake Rd E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	11mo	$229,000	$186	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-47,918
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-66,874
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,630/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $244,579

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $45	+0% $-25	+5% $-96	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-105	+0% $-25	+5% $55	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $38	base $-25	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14200 Duval Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,987	$1.98	3d	27	0.38mi
12900 Broxton Bay Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1103	$1,700	$1.54	5d	34	0.69mi
13100 Broxton Bay Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,696	$1.55	3d	45	0.74mi
14105 Epply Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$2,341	$1.88	4d	42	1.15mi
13283 N Main St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$1,947	$1.87	3d	24	1.31mi
250 Vernis Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	6d	1	1.46mi
256 Vernis Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1050	$2,125	$2.02	25d	1	1.46mi
525 New Berlin Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	18d	1	1.47mi
13112 Annies Walk Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1359	$1,725	$1.27	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $249,000
15. 2026-04-16
    price $259,000
16. 2026-04-07
    price $269,500
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $279,500 Active
18. 2026-01-07
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2004-12-18
    historical 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    .8 acres sold in conjunction w/MLS #'s 207322, 207357, 207350, 207360, 207366, 207292. Property zoned residential but can be rezoned as commercial.

20. 2004-06-18
    listed $275,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    .8 acres sold in conjunction w/MLS #'s 207322, 207357, 207350, 207360, 207366, 207292. Property zoned residential but can be rezoned as commercial.

21. 1992-05-27
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,630
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+611.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $249,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $259,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $269,500 realMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $279,500 realMLS
• 2026-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2004-06-18 Listed $275,000 realMLS
• 1992-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,630 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.