5646 Larkin St · Houston, TX 77007

$525,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,541 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2015 1,772 sqft lot $207/sqft · 5% above area Est $499k · 5% over $50/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5646 Larkin. Situated in the heart of Cottage Grove and only one-block from Cottage Grove Park, this home features an open living concept, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms with ensuite bathrooms, 12-foot ceilings on the second floor, and almost 300 square feet of patio space. Inside of a gated complex with additional parking for guests in front, (something that is hard to find in Cottage Grove), you will feel secure and also be able to entertain. Completed in 2016, this home has had one owner and has been well maintained. Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Guest parking
• Open layout

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GUEST PARKING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• 12-FOOT CEILINGS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• ARCHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Larkinwoods Townhome Association; $50 monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Leased security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Built in 2015; Entry on slab and pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Built in 2015
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Corner lot; Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Ceiling fans; Low emissivity windows; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $502k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $490k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Memorial El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 424 students, 45% FRL); Hogg Middle (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,120 students, 52% FRL); Waltrip H S (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,342 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,597 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 651 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $489,696 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $498,840
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: 5.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5719 Darling St	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (-0%)	1mo	$490,000	$193	88
1628 Mcdonald St	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,420 (-5%)	1mo	$575,000	$238	80
2709 Arabelle Grv	0.27mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,630 (+4%)	0mo	$625,000	$238	76
5336 Petty St Unit C	0.39mi	3/3.5	2,467 (-3%)	1mo	$449,000	$182	76
5908 Kansas St Unit A	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,576 (+1%)	1mo	$639,900	$248	75
1520 Malone St	0.44mi	3/4.0	2,557 (+1%)	1mo	$539,000	$211	75
5410A Nolda St	0.38mi	3/3.5	2,346 (-8%)	1mo	$669,900	$286	69
5310 Larkin St Unit B	0.45mi	3/3.5	2,354 (-7%)	1mo	$399,000	$169	66
5602 Schuler St	0.56mi	3/3.5	2,677 (+5%)	1mo	$495,000	$185	64
1510 Birdsall St	0.41mi	3/3.5	2,268 (-11%)	1mo	$389,000	$172	62
6605 Letein St	0.59mi	3/2.5	2,344 (-8%)	1mo	$550,000	$235	55
6107 Queenswood Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,858 (+12%)	1mo	$990,000	$346	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-107,410
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-158,439
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77007

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 651
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$910 /mo · $10,924/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,028
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,062

Max offer price $502,012

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $18	+0% $-130	+5% $-279	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-517	-5% $-324	+0% $-130	+5% $63	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $3	base $-130	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5620 Petty St Unit 1019538P Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2884	$16,259	$5.64	24d	1	0.13mi
5620 Petty St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2891	$8,750	$3.03	45d	1	0.13mi
5732 Darling St Unit 1056419P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2400	$7,771	$3.24	45d	1	0.13mi
5530 Kiam St Unit 1019540P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2680	$15,799	$5.90	45d	1	0.22mi
5530 Kiam St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2688	$9,750	$3.63	45d	1	0.22mi
2103 Radcliffe St Unit 1225772P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,729	$2.63	9d	1	0.23mi
2210 Radcliffe St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2066	$2,716	$1.31	9d	1	0.25mi
5427 Kansas St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2156	$2,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.33mi
543 T C Jester Blvd Unit 1225766P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2389	$5,557	$2.33	1d	1	0.38mi
5418 Inker St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2357	$2,766	$1.17	0d	1	0.38mi
5811 Maxie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2226	$3,000	$1.35	45d	1	0.40mi
5336 Darling St Unit 1225767P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2292	$5,997	$2.62	1d	1	0.40mi
5235 Petty St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2532	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.52mi
5610 Schuler St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2614	$3,111	$1.19	7d	1	0.54mi
920 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,306	$2.81	1d	28	0.59mi
929 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1375	$9,263	$6.74	1d	21	0.61mi
5108 Larkin St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2108	$2,850	$1.35	46d	1	0.66mi
5305 Nett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2104	$2,950	$1.40	26d	1	0.70mi
5237 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2284	$2,995	$1.31	45d	1	0.77mi
4917 Nolda St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1764	$5,000	$2.83	26d	1	0.79mi
4510 Inker St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2293	$4,500	$1.96	45d	1	1.07mi
4608 Nett St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2261	$3,750	$1.66	45d	1	1.08mi
4311 Marina St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2328	$3,599	$1.55	45d	1	1.17mi
4444 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2121	$3,200	$1.51	45d	1	1.21mi
1306 Dian St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2151	$3,250	$1.51	1d	1	1.23mi
5201 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$3,361	$3.14	0d	16	1.33mi
1723 W 14th St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2373	$3,400	$1.43	22d	1	1.33mi
915 Thompson St Unit 915 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	26d	1	1.33mi
913 Thompson St #913 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	26d	1	1.34mi
1221 Bonner St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2252	$3,200	$1.42	45d	1	1.34mi
917 Thompson St Unit 917 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,000	$2.50	26d	1	1.34mi
911 Thompson St #911 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	26d	1	1.35mi
1126 W 16th St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2494	$4,295	$1.72	45d	1	1.43mi
1332 Dorothy St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2980	$6,500	$2.18	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $525,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $525,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $525,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $525,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $525,000 Active 902-char remark
14. 2021-01-11
    soldstatus
15. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus Sold 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Welcome to 5646 Larkin. Situated in the heart of Cottage Grove and only one-block from Cottage Grove Park, this home features an open living concept, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms with ensuite bathrooms, 12-foot ceilings on the second floor, and almost 300 square feet of patio space. Inside of a gated complex with additional parking for guests in front, (something that is hard to find in Cottage Grove), you will feel secure and also be able to entertain. Completed in 2016, this home has had one owner and has been well maintained. Schedule your appointment today!

16. 2020-12-24
    status Pending 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Welcome to 5646 Larkin. Situated in the heart of Cottage Grove and only one-block from Cottage Grove Park, this home features an open living concept, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms with ensuite bathrooms, 12-foot ceilings on the second floor, and almost 300 square feet of patio space. Inside of a gated complex with additional parking for guests in front, (something that is hard to find in Cottage Grove), you will feel secure and also be able to entertain. Completed in 2016, this home has had one owner and has been well maintained. Schedule your appointment today!

17. 2020-12-16
    status Option Pending 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Welcome to 5646 Larkin. Situated in the heart of Cottage Grove and only one-block from Cottage Grove Park, this home features an open living concept, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms with ensuite bathrooms, 12-foot ceilings on the second floor, and almost 300 square feet of patio space. Inside of a gated complex with additional parking for guests in front, (something that is hard to find in Cottage Grove), you will feel secure and also be able to entertain. Completed in 2016, this home has had one owner and has been well maintained. Schedule your appointment today!

18. 2020-11-30
    listed $439,000 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Welcome to 5646 Larkin. Situated in the heart of Cottage Grove and only one-block from Cottage Grove Park, this home features an open living concept, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms with ensuite bathrooms, 12-foot ceilings on the second floor, and almost 300 square feet of patio space. Inside of a gated complex with additional parking for guests in front, (something that is hard to find in Cottage Grove), you will feel secure and also be able to entertain. Completed in 2016, this home has had one owner and has been well maintained. Schedule your appointment today!

19. 2020-11-17
    status Active
20. 2020-11-17
    historical
21. 2020-11-15
    status Pending
22. 2020-11-05
    status Option Pending
23. 2020-09-28
    listed $439,000 Active
24. 2016-03-18
    historical
25. 2015-10-29
    listed $468,000 Active
26. 2015-10-28
    historical
27. 2015-08-23
    price $470,000
28. 2015-05-23
    listed $480,000 Active
29. 2015-05-22
    historical
30. 2015-03-11
    historical
31. 2015-03-11
    listed $489,000 Active
32. 2014-10-30
    listed $489,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,924 · $910/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,924 · $910/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$10,924
• − Insurance: −$3,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,701
• − Management: −$4,701
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,464
• After-tax cash flow: $902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,808
• Household income: $144,911
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 11% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.42%
• Current HPI: 159.8157
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $525,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-30 Listed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-28 Listed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2016-03-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-10-29 Listed $468,000 HARMLS
• 2015-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-23 Price Changed $470,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-23 Listed $480,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-11 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-30 Listed $489,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,924 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.