609 Harvest Grove Ln · Socorro, TX 79927

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 10,141 sqft lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

New Home Construction at its finest. Check out the 1450 Margarita Tuscany Plan with 4 BDRMS + 2 BATHS located on a 10,141 SQFT lot! Closing costs plus incentives with this builder!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 55 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,936 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-23,093
• Equity at exit: $62,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $8,648
• Equity at exit: $66,185

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,196/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $229,951

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-70	+0% $-142	+5% $-214	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-216	+0% $-142	+5% $-68	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-77	base $-142	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12049 Hidden Gardens Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,775	$1.21	24d	1	0.18mi
476 Deserts Dr Socorro, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$1,999	$1.28	3d	1	0.22mi
629 Guy Meyers St El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	1913	$2,000	$1.05	11d	1	0.61mi
11571 Leonor Duran St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,100	$0.98	3d	1	0.80mi
301 Vida Bonita Way Clint, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,350	$0.96	3d	1	0.94mi
11500 Summer Dr Unit B Socorro, TX	4.0	2.0	1594	$1,700	$1.07	3d	1	1.09mi
330 Plantation Clint, TX	4.0	3.0	1680	$1,750	$1.04	3d	1	1.10mi
629 David Ortiz St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,750	$1.21	3d	1	1.11mi
390 Burkett Clint, TX	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,850	$0.91	3d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-06-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-29
   listed $255,000 Active
3. 2025-04-14
   historical
4. 2025-01-01
   listed $259,950 Active
5. 2024-12-26
   historical
6. 2024-07-03
   listed $259,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,471/yr (+$206/mo · 112.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,196
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$6,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $-207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Socorro, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-23 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $255,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $259,950 GEPARMLS
• 2024-12-26 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listed $259,950 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,196 · +72.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.