741 Mariday St · Orion, MI 48362

$299,750

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1978 0.31 ac lot $231/sqft · 21% above area Est $281k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake Orion tri-level home featuring hardwood flooring and a cozy gas fireplace in the living room, along with granite countertops and a tiled kitchen for easy care. Step out from the dining area onto the 16x16 deck—perfect for entertaining or relaxing while overlooking the large backyard with mature trees. Additional highlights include a second garage for extra storage or workspace; newer HVAC system. Great Location !

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Tiled kitchen
• 16x16 deck

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED KITCHEN
• 16X16 DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single‑family residence; Residential property; Ground‑level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Lot approx. 0.31 acre (60 x 225)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing gas range; Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Free‑standing gas range; Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave; Washer; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $300k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $278,436 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,638
• List price: $299,750
• Delta: 6.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
749 Mariday St	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,316 (+1%)	3mo	$275,000	$209	93
811 Miller Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,271 (-2%)	0mo	$219,000	$172	85
790 Luna Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-6%)	0mo	$307,000	$251	76
132 Florence St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,387 (+7%)	3mo	$335,000	$242	68
325 N Broadway St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,318 (+1%)	1mo	$165,000	$125	67
388 Norland St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+7%)	6mo	$198,000	$142	62
733 Luna Ct	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,128 (-13%)	3mo	$245,000	$217	58
225 E Shadbolt St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (-6%)	8mo	$315,000	$259	56
1075 Seabury Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,121 (-14%)	9mo	$225,000	$201	56
1334 De Goff Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-6%)	6mo	$272,000	$224	55
55 Mouton Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+9%)	6mo	$150,000	$106	53
437 Converse Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+12%)	12mo	$400,000	$275	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-37,034
• Equity at exit: $44,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-17,366
• Equity at exit: $25,917

Cash invested: $83,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,862/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $299,750

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,938
• Closing costs: $8,992
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
733 Luna Ct Lake Orion, MI	3.0	1.5	1177	$2,695	$2.29	19d	1	0.24mi
120 S Broadway St Lake Orion, MI	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,950	$2.77	15d	1	0.58mi
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$5,350	$2.69	2d	4	0.68mi
784 Porteous Dr Lake Orion, MI	2.0	1.0	875	$1,600	$1.83	44d	1	0.73mi
711 Kimberly Lake Orion, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,149	$1.17	2d	6	0.98mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,750 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,750 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   price $299,750 423-char remark
4. 2026-05-15
   price $299,750 427-char remark
5. 2026-05-08
   price $305,000 423-char remark
6. 2026-05-07
   price $305,000 427-char remark
7. 2026-04-27
   listed $315,000 Active 427-char remark
8. 2026-04-27
   listed $315,000 Active 423-char remark
9. 2017-09-22
   soldstatus $143,000
10. 2008-02-25
    historical
11. 2007-07-16
    listed $165,000
12. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus $171,500
13. 2003-03-14
    soldstatus $171,500
14. 2003-03-14
    soldstatus $171,500
15. 2003-03-14
    soldstatus $171,500
16. 2003-02-03
    historical
17. 2002-07-09
    listed $167,500
18. 2002-07-08
    listed $167,500
19. 2002-06-30
    listed $167,500
20. 1994-05-24
    soldstatus $92,300
21. 1992-05-22
    soldstatus $83,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,862 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,239 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,791
• − Property taxes: −$3,862
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,673
• − Management: −$2,673
• − Depreciation: −$8,720
• Taxable loss: −$2,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $2,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,401
• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+257.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-23 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-23 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $299,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $299,750 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $305,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $305,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Listed $315,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Listed $315,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-07-16 Listed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $171,500 Public Records
• 2003-03-14 Sold (MLS) $171,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-03-14 Sold (MLS) $171,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-03-14 Sold (MLS) $171,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-02-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-07-09 Listed $167,500 REALCOMP
• 2002-07-08 Listed $167,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-30 Listed $167,500 REALCOMP
• 1994-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $92,300 Public Records
• 1992-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $83,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,862 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.