511 Powder Horn Rd · St. Marys, GA 31558

$229,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1985 0.36 ac lot $148/sqft · 9% below area Est $250k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

511 Powder Horn Rd St. Marys, GA features 1548 sq ft. This immaculate home has 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Large corner lot with a fenced in back yard and a large screened back porch.

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Fenced in back yard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• SCREENED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in St. Marys — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden County (town): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Camden County High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 2,673 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 383 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,012 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,380
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -4.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
287 Liberty Tree Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-2%)	12mo	$295,000	$194	76
156 Cypress Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-4%)	6mo	$270,000	$182	74
277 Cypress Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+5%)	3mo	$295,000	$182	73
696 Powderhorn Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (-1%)	14mo	$259,000	$169	72
308 Anchor Way	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,543 (-0%)	0mo	$514,000	$333	70
623 Powder Horn Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,373 (-11%)	4mo	$220,000	$160	67
434 Powder Horn Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-8%)	14mo	$255,900	$180	65
128 Mooring Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-5%)	1mo	$430,000	$293	63
372 Powder Horn Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-14%)	11mo	$234,900	$176	56
26 Lonesome Pine St	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+10%)	4mo	$227,000	$134	54
36 Marchi Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (+4%)	6mo	$267,000	$165	50
107 Hamlet Cir	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,732 (+12%)	5mo	$529,900	$306	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,176
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-60,824
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31558

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,022/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $213,135

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-25	+0% $-90	+5% $-155	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-166	+0% $-90	+5% $-14	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-32	base $-90	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Quail Run Saint Marys, GA	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,750	$1.16	14d	1	0.19mi
26 Lonesome Pine St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	2.5	1696	$1,750	$1.03	5d	1	0.45mi
106 Plantation Oaks Dr Saint Marys, GA	3.0	2.0	1954	$1,950	$1.00	13d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $229,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    status Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    511 Powder Horn Rd St. Marys, GA features 1548 sq ft. This immaculate home has 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Large corner lot with a fenced in back yard and a large screened back porch.

18. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    511 Powder Horn Rd St. Marys, GA features 1548 sq ft. This immaculate home has 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Large corner lot with a fenced in back yard and a large screened back porch.

19. 2026-04-12
    listed $251,500 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    511 Powder Horn Rd St. Marys, GA features 1548 sq ft. This immaculate home has 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Large corner lot with a fenced in back yard and a large screened back porch.

20. 2025-12-31
    historical
21. 2025-08-02
    status Back On Market
22. 2025-07-26
    status Under Contract
23. 2025-05-28
    listed $290,000 New
24. 2023-09-12
    soldstatus $285,000 Sold
25. 2023-08-17
    status Under Contract
26. 2023-07-27
    listed $285,000 New
27. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $206,500
28. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus $206,500 Sold
29. 2021-10-08
    status Under Contract
30. 2021-10-01
    listed $209,000 New
31. 2019-07-09
    historical
32. 2019-04-13
    listed $175,000
33. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $107,000
34. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,022 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,022 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,022
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County
• NCES district ID: 1300780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,668
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2331
• State rank: #9 of 174 in GA

Livability — St. Marys

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Camden County · 46,661 people
• Metro: St. Marys, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,591
• Household income: $74,268
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,358 people
• By 2030: 54,841 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,295 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 51,529 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 42,990 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 33,094 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.9% · R 67.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.5pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+23.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.90%
• Current HPI: 289.1157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: St. Marys, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+135.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — GIAR
• 2026-05-04 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $251,500 GIAR
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-08-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-07-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $290,000 GAMLS
• 2023-09-12 Sold (MLS) $285,000 GAMLS
• 2023-08-17 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-07-27 Listed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2021-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $206,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) $206,500 GAMLS
• 2021-10-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-10-01 Listed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2019-07-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2019-04-13 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2014-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-31 Sold (MLS) $107,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,022 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.