Cardinal Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$336,740

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,957 sqft · SingleFamily · 407 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Cardinal offers a functional layout with main living spaces located downstairs, including a versatile study area that can easily be adapted to a private office, gym, or playroom. Upstairs, escape to the privacy of the primary suite, your personal retreat away from the bustle of daily life. The additional loft space adds flexibility, while the conveniently located laundry room ensures ultimate convenience. Thoughtful design elements make the Cardinal a home that balances comfort, functionality, and style.

Key facts

• Study area
• Laundry room
• Primary suite

Tags

• STUDY AREA
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LOFT SPACE
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $336,740 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $351,244.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $337k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1739 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,877 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,244
• List price: $336,740
• Delta: -4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
732 Lariat Loop	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,950 (-0%)	1mo	$439,900	$226	88
527 Outrider Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,950 (-0%)	2mo	$399,900	$205	84
508 Lariat Loop	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,903 (-3%)	0mo	$399,922	$210	82
145 Clover Bnd	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,970 (+1%)	3mo	$342,673	$174	82
208 High Valley Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,951 (-0%)	1mo	$399,805	$205	79
514 Outrider Ct	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,910 (-2%)	2mo	$398,900	$209	79
117 Old Woods Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,018 (+3%)	2mo	$414,835	$206	78
608 Leeland Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,002 (+2%)	2mo	$399,721	$200	75
216 Foundation Ln	0.30mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,978 (+1%)	1mo	$524,900	$265	74
516 Bauer Loop	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,028 (+4%)	2mo	$334,990	$165	74
237 Leeland Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,180 (+11%)	2mo	$368,020	$169	68
236 Langhorne Bnd	0.33mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,233 (+14%)	2mo	$359,990	$161	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-86,439
• Equity at exit: $52,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-133,102
• Equity at exit: $30,369

Cash invested: $98,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 104 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $420,136 ($204/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1739
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,842
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$439 /mo · $5,269/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,073

Max offer price $301,649

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-221	+0% $-343	+5% $-464	+10% $-585
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-447	+0% $-343	+5% $-239	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-253	base $-343	+0.5pp $-434	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,811
• Closing costs: $10,537
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 McCrae Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2453	$2,900	$1.18	46d	1	0.21mi
217 Gary Wayne Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,600	$1.06	26d	1	0.27mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	65d	1	0.29mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	53d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $336,740 Active 407 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $336,740 Active 405 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $336,740 Active 404 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $336,740 Active 403 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $336,740 Active 402 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $335,740 Active 399 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $335,740 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $335,740 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $335,740 Active 394 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $335,740 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $335,740 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $335,740 Active 390 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $335,740 Active 389 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $335,740 Active 388 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $335,740 Active 386 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $335,740 Active 385 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $335,740 Active 384 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $335,740 Active 383 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $335,740 Active 382 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $335,740 Active 381 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $335,740 Active 380 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $335,740 Active 379 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $335,740 Active 378 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $335,740 Active 377 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $335,740 Active 375 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $335,740 Active 374 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $335,740 Active 373 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $335,740 Active 371 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $335,740 Active 370 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $334,740 Active 369 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $334,740 Active 368 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $334,740 Active 367 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $334,740 Active 366 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $334,740 Active 365 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $334,740 Active 364 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $334,740 Active 362 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $334,740 Active 360 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $334,740 Active 359 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $334,740 Active 356 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $334,740 Active 355 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $334,740 Active 354 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $334,740 Active 353 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $334,740 Active 351 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $334,740 Active 347 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,740 Active 346 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,740 Active 345 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,740 Active 342 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $334,740 Active 341 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $332,740 Active 340 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $332,740 Active 339 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,675
• − Property taxes: −$5,269
• − Insurance: −$1,756
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − Depreciation: −$10,218
• Taxable loss: −$10,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Liberty Hill, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a functional layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Hill El C- TX #742/4,322 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Liberty Hill Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $332,740 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $330,740 Zillow
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $328,740 Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $327,740 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $327,240 Zillow
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $347,240 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $346,740 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $346,240 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $345,740 Zillow
• 2025-06-27 Listed $344,990 Zillow