167 Forrest Creek Dr · Austinville, VA 24312

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2006 0.94 ac lot Est $196k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 167 Forrest Creek Drive! Located in the countryside of Wythe County, this adorable home is ready to call you its new owner! Upon stepping inside, you'll be delighted to find an open layout between the main living spaces, a spacious kitchen ideal for the aspiring chef, and two generously sized bedrooms offering private escapes for everyone in the family. As you venture outside, you'll be delighted to find a new TREX deck and porch offering durability for years to come, a nearly 1 acre lot offering endless space for kids and fur babies at play, and a heat pump ensuring comfort no matter the weather outside. In addition to being move-in ready, this home is conveniently located to Interstate 77, the New River, The New River Trail and the towns of Galax and Wytheville, Virginia. What more could you want? Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Spacious kitchen
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NEW TREX DECK
• NEARLY 1 ACRE LOT
• HEAT PUMP
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential detached mobile home; One level / 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bay window(s); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wythe County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 131 in VA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Jackson Memorial Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 212 students, 74% FRL); Fort Chiswell Middle (math 70% / reading 83%, grade A, #40 of 342 statewide, top 12%, 316 students, 74% FRL); Fort Chiswell High (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 435 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 41% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Wythe County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Wythe County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,058 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,776
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
271 Oak Ridge Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,300 (+7%)	19mo	$188,800	$145	56
426 Store Hill Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,116 (-8%)	10mo	$180,000	$161	43
438 Store Hill Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-8%)	23mo	$90,000	$81	29
764 Lead Mine Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,314 (+8%)	22mo	$212,500	$162	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $36,534
• Equity at exit: $90,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $112,569
• Equity at exit: $170,139

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24312

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $116,667

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-80	+0% $-127	+5% $-173	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-167	+0% $-127	+5% $-86	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-92	base $-127	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-04
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $-584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wythe County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104110
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,665
• Composite: 60.19/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #20 of 131 in VA

Livability — Austinville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,586

Population outlook (Wythe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,176 people
• By 2030: 28,993 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 28,273 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 27,055 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 23,668 · -18.9%
• By 2100: 18,904 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wythe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.9% · R 79.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.8pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+54.9 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+32.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.69%
• Current HPI: 158.1322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+116.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $135,000 SWVAR
• 2026-06-03 Listed $135,000 NRVMLS
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-19 Sold (MLS) $107,000 SWVAR
• 2023-10-03 Contingent — SWVAR
• 2023-09-19 Listed $115,000 SWVAR
• 2022-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $38,300 Public Records
• 2022-09-08 Sold (MLS) $59,500 SWVAR
• 2022-04-02 Listed $62,500 SWVAR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $111 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.