19 Lafayette 6801 · Taylor, AR 71861

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1971 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wake up to sparkling water views and unwind to peaceful sunsets at this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath lakefront retreat. Thoughtfully maintained and full of charm, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and classic lake house living. Enjoy direct access to the water, ideal for morning coffee on the deck, summer boating, and evenings spent watching the light dance across the lake. Inside, the space is warm and welcoming, offering a cozy layout that’s easy to enjoy year-round or as a weekend escape. Whether you’re seeking a serene getaway, a low-maintenance lakefront home, or an investment in a highly desirable setting, this property delivers the lifestyle lake living is all about.

Key facts

• Lakefront retreat
• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• LAKEFRONT RETREAT
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($664/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#302 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $376 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $200k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,030 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-650
• Equity at exit: $59,934

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $31,803
• Equity at exit: $73,569

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71861

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $549/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 151 DOM
3. 2025-12-30
   listed $199,900 New Listing 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Wake up to sparkling water views and unwind to peaceful sunsets at this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath lakefront retreat. Thoughtfully maintained and full of charm, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and classic lake house living. Enjoy direct access to the water, ideal for morning coffee on the deck, summer boating, and evenings spent watching the light dance across the lake. Inside, the space is warm and welcoming, offering a cozy layout that’s easy to enjoy year-round or as a weekend escape. Whether you’re seeking a serene getaway, a low-maintenance lakefront home, or an investment in a highly desirable setting, this property delivers the lifestyle lake living is all about.

4. 2022-04-29
   soldstatus $60,000
5. 2014-03-04
   soldstatus $82,500
6. 2008-11-12
   soldstatus $83,000
7. 2006-11-27
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 133.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 36% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$549
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$680
• After-tax cash flow: $1,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #20529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,330

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,990 people
• By 2030: 5,452 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 4,482 · -25.2%
• By 2050: 3,625 · -39.5%
• By 2075: 2,352 · -60.7%
• By 2100: 1,830 · -69.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.0% · R 68.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+34.3 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Current HPI: 261.3192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $199,900 CARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2008-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $549 · +66.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.