8 Riverwood Cir · Barney's Junction, WA 99141

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

Built 1975 9,583 sqft lot $220/sqft · 42% below area Est $382k · 42% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful setting with room to garden, just off the Columbia with water views and close to town. Some established grapes and raspberry's to get you started. Features 2 bedroom, with a 3rd extra room for games or additional sleep space. Attached 1 car garage. Starter home or bring your tool belt and bring up to date with your own personal touches.

Key facts

• Water views
• Established grapes
• Extra room for games

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• ROOM TO GARDEN
• ESTABLISHED GRAPES
• EXTRA ROOM FOR GAMES
• ADDITIONAL SLEEP SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-506 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (46.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (46.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.6% in Barney's Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kettle Falls School District (rural): math 37% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #171 of 291 in WA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kettle Falls Elementary School (304 students, 62% FRL); Kettle Falls Middle School (237 students, 68% FRL); Kettle Falls High School (237 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 46% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Ferry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ferry County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,668 (46.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.56%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,936
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -42.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $87,560
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $283,122
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99141

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $130,624

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-381	-5% $-444	+0% $-506	+5% $-568	+10% $-630
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-552	+0% $-506	+5% $-459	+10% $-413
Rate	-1.0pp $-395	-0.5pp $-450	base $-506	+0.5pp $-563	+1.0pp $-621

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 308 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 306 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 305 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 302 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 301 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 300 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 299 DOM
18. 2026-03-25
    price $220,000 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    A beautiful setting with room to garden, just off the Columbia with water views and close to town. Some established grapes and raspberry's to get you started. Features 2 bedroom, with a 3rd extra room for games or additional sleep space. Attached 1 car garage. Starter home or bring your tool belt and bring up to date with your own personal touches.

19. 2025-08-05
    listed $230,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    A beautiful setting with room to garden, just off the Columbia with water views and close to town. Some established grapes and raspberry's to get you started. Features 2 bedroom, with a 3rd extra room for games or additional sleep space. Attached 1 car garage. Starter home or bring your tool belt and bring up to date with your own personal touches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,156 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$672/yr (+$56/mo · 45.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,459
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettle Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 5303990
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,206
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #7028
• State rank: #171 of 291 in WA

Livability — Barney's Junction

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barney's Junction, WA
• Population (ZIP): 6,272

Population outlook (Ferry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,408 people
• By 2030: 7,210 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 6,714 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 6,331 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 5,599 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 5,057 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ferry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.1% · R 65.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+29.4 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.15%
• Current HPI: 476.88
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $220,000 NEWMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $230,000 NEWMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,484 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.